The Minnesota Twins will look to continue their home dominance from the regular season when they meet the Houston Astros in Game 1 of their American League Wild Card series on Tuesday. The Twins were nearly unbeatable at home in 2020, going 24-7 at home, the best mark in MLB. The Astros, meanwhile, struggled on the road, going 9-23, the worst record among playoff teams. Houston has lost three straight and four of six, while Minnesota has won five of its last seven.
The game will start at 2 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis. The Twins have been red hot in September, going 16-8, while the Astros have gone 10-17 this month. Minnesota is the -160 favorite on the money line in the latest Astros vs. Twins odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total runs scored is 7.5. Before making any Twins vs. Astros picks, check out the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, is coming off a banner 2019 season. The model returned more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks, and anyone who followed it saw huge rewards.
- Astros vs. Twins money line: Houston +150, Minnesota -160
- Astros vs. Twins run line: Minnesota –1.5
- Astros vs. Twins over-under: 7.5 runs
- HOU: OF Kyle Tucker led the Astros with eight stolen bases this season
- MIN: Allowed the fewest home runs in MLB this year with 62
Why you should back the Twins
Besides being nearly automatic at home against the AL and NL Central Divisions this season, Minnesota has also had its way with Houston at Target Field the past two years, going 5-2. The Twins won last year's season series 4-3 and won three of the past four games in the series, including two straight. Minnesota has an edge in pitching, finishing third in MLB in WHIP (1.20) and fourth in ERA (3.58).
Second baseman Luis Arraez (.321) has been red hot. He enters the postseason with a seven-game hitting streak, including going 6-for-8 in the final two games of a weekend series against the Cincinnati Reds after missing 13 games with tendinitis in his left knee. Arraez tied for second on the team with nine doubles and drove in 13 runs. He will be facing Houston for the first time in his career.
Why you should back the Astros
Houston is making its fourth consecutive playoff appearance and has appeared in two of the past three World Series, winning the 2017 championship. The Astros will start right-hander Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA). After starting the season strong, posting a 1.84 ERA over his first five starts, Greinke had a 5.73 ERA over his final seven games. He had a 0-2 record and 4.68 ERA in five starts for Houston in last year's postseason. In 24 career starts against the Twins, Greinke is 5-9 with a 4.64 ERA with 47 walks and 102 strikeouts.
Left fielder Michael Brantley led the Houston offense with a .300 batting average and had hits in seven of his past 10 games, including a 3-for-4 performance at Seattle on Sept. 21. Brantley is facing Maeda for the first time. He is a lifetime .291 hitter against the Twins. In 125 career games vs. Minnesota, Brantley has 22 doubles, four triples, nine homers and 58 RBIs. He has scored 58 runs.
How to make Twins vs. Astros picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, as the simulation says the starting pitchers from both teams will combine to allow nearly five runs in 11-plus combined innings, and it also says one side of the money line has the value. Head to SportsLine now to see the pick.
So who wins Astros vs. Twins? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side to jump on, all from the advanced model that returned over $1,400 on MLB picks last year.