The Philadelphia Phillies have the chance to clinch a berth in the National League Championship Series on Thursday evening. The Phillies host the Atlanta Braves for Game 4 of the NLDS, with Philadelphia leading 2-1 in the best-of-five matchup. Philadelphia blasted Atlanta by a 10-2 margin in Game 3 on Wednesday. Atlanta aims to even this 2023 MLB playoffs series behind All-Star right-hander Spencer Strider, while Philadelphia will lean on Ranger Suarez.
First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. SportsLine consensus lists Atlanta as -150 money line favorites (risk $150 to win $100) in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 8.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Braves picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the second week of the 2023 MLB playoffs 92-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Braves vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Phillies vs. Braves:
- Braves vs. Phillies money line: Phillies -128, Braves -150
- Braves vs. Phillies over/under: 8.5 runs
- Braves vs. Phillies run line: Phillies +1.5 (-132)
- ATL: The Braves were 52-29 in regular season road games
- PHI: The Phillies were 49-32 in regular season home games
- Braves vs. Phillies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Braves
Atlanta's Game 4 hopes rest heavily on the right arm of Strider, which should produce confidence for the Braves. Strider was an All-Star this season and finished near the top of the leaderboard in wins above replacement, illustrating his overall success. The powerful right-hander led the National League with 285 strikeouts and 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and Strider was in the top four of the league in WHIP (1.093) and hits allowed per nine innings (7.039). Strider pitched more than 185 innings this season while holding opponents to a paltry .634 OPS, and he was excellent on the road with a 3.36 ERA away from Atlanta.
He was also highly effective in Game 1 of the series, holding the Phillies to one earned run with eight strikeouts and only two walks across seven innings. With Strider on the bump, the Braves are in a strong position, especially with the league's best offense also in the mix. Atlanta led the National League in virtually every offensive category this season, including home runs, batting average, runs scored and OPS, and the Braves set a modern-day record with a .501 slugging percentage as a team. See which team to back here.
Why you should back the Phillies
Philadelphia will face a tough starting pitcher in Atlanta's Strider, but the Phillies also project for tremendous run prevention. Suarez will start for the Phillies, and he has a 3.19 ERA combined over the last three regular seasons. Suarez has been even better in the playoffs, posting a career 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings, and that includes 3.1 scoreless innings in the series opener against Atlanta. Behind him, Philadelphia's top relievers are rested after a blowout win in Game 3, and the Phillies have a 1.84 bullpen ERA in the postseason across 14.2 innings of work.
Opponents are hitting only .232 against Phillies relievers, and Philadelphia has a 1.16 WHIP in the postseason. In the 162-game regular season run, the Phillies also finished in the top three of the National League in bullpen ERA (3.58) and walks allowed (217). From there, a potent offense is in place for the Phillies, headlined by Bryce Harper. He has three home runs in five playoff games, including two in Game 3, and Harper leads an offense slugging well over .500 in the 2023 postseason. See which team to back here.
How to make Phillies vs. Braves picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 9.2 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all of the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Braves vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 92-74 on its top-rated MLB picks, and find out.
