The New York Mets will look to continue their home success when they face the Atlanta Braves in the first game of a doubleheader on Monday. The Mets (52-44), who are 11-9 this month, are 30-15 at home in 2021. The Braves (48-50), who are 10-9 in July, are 22-25 on the road. The Braves have won six of their last 10 games played at Citi Field in New York.
Game 1 is slated to begin at 5:10 p.m. ET. The Mets are sixth in MLB with a staff ERA of 3.53, while the Braves are 15th with a 4.15 ERA. The Mets are a -153 favorite on the money line in the latest Braves vs. Mets odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is 6.5. You'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model MLB predictions are saying about the game before laying any Mets vs. Braves picks down.
This model, which simulates every pitch of every game 10,000 times, is a profitable 132-109 on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 17 weeks in the 2021 season. It also had a banner 2019 season, the league's last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line picks. Anyone following it has seen some huge returns.
- Braves vs. Mets money line: Atlanta +143, New York -153
- Braves vs. Mets run line: New York -1.5
- Braves vs. Mets over-under: 6.5 runs
- ATL: The Braves are 4-1 in their last five road games against a team with a winning record
- NYM: The Mets are 6-0 in their last six series openers
Why you should back the Mets
Infielder Jonathan Villar has played well of late and was a big reason New York was able to win two of three from the Toronto Blue Jays this past weekend. Villar was 2-for-4 with an RBI and run scored in Sunday's win, and he has hits in five of his last seven games, raising his average to .232. For the season, he has homered 10 times with 21 RBIs and 36 runs scored. In six games against Atlanta this year, Villar is batting .286 with a double, three homers and four RBIs.
Since returning from injury, third baseman J.D. Davis has been tearing up opposing pitching. In the weekend series against Toronto, he went 4-for-10 with a double and is now hitting .364 for the season with four homers, 11 RBIs and 10 runs scored. In 25 career games against the Braves, Davis is batting .266 with two doubles, four homers and 11 RBIs. He has worked 14 walks and has been a threat on the bases with two steals.
Why you should back the Braves
Atlanta will send left hander Kyle Muller (1-3, 3.20 ERA) to the mound. The rookie has lost his past two starts, but was solid in his last outing, a 3-2 loss to San Diego. In that game, he allowed just one earned run on two hits in four innings while walking three and striking out three. His lone win on the season was a 4-0 triumph at Cincinnati on June 27 in which he went five innings, allowing just one hit, while walking two and striking out nine.
First baseman Freddie Freeman continues to power the Braves offense. He is coming off a series at Philadelphia in which he went 6-for-14 (.429) with a homer and three RBIs. For the season, he is batting .289 with 23 homers, 58 RBIs and 70 runs scored. In 11 games against the Mets in 2021, he is hitting .333 with a double, home run and three RBIs.
How to make Braves vs. Mets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, as the simulation says the starters from both teams will combine to allow fewer than three runs in more than 11 combined innings, and it also says one side of the money line has the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Mets vs. Braves? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Braves vs. Mets spread to jump on Monday, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $600 on MLB picks in 2021.