An intriguing National League East matchup is set for Friday evening in Miami. The Miami Marlins welcome the New York Mets to town to begin a weekend series between rivals. New York is 45-26 this season and leading the division despite a 1-3 record in the last four games. Miami is on a three-game winning streak, improving to 32-36.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the -140 money-line favorite (risk $140 to win $100) for this 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is seven in the latest Mets vs. Marlins odds. Before making any Marlins vs. Mets picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it is off to a strong start to the 2022 season. It's on a 56-47 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 11 weeks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Marlins, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Marlins vs. Mets:
- Mets vs. Marlins money line: Marlins -140, Mets +120
- Mets vs. Marlins over-under: 7 runs
- Mets vs. Marlins run line: Marlins -1.5 (+160)
- Mets vs. Marlins tickets: See tickets at StubHub
- NYM: The Mets are 25-15 in night games
- MIA: The Marlins are 18-21 in night games
Why you should back the Mets
Not only do the Mets have the better offense in this matchup, but New York's pitching projection is encouraging. The Mets will deploy veteran right-hander Taijuan Walker to begin the game, and he is a former All-Star with a 2.88 ERA this season. Walker also has a 2.48 ERA in his last six starts, including his most recent outing against Miami in which he allowed one earned run and generated nine strikeouts. Walker has a 1.16 WHIP with only 2.6 walks per nine innings and 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, with right-handed batters posting a .576 OPS against him.
Walker is also comfortable on the road, putting up a 3.11 ERA, and New York has the superior bullpen to Miami. The Mets are in the top five of the National League in reliever ERA (3.68), and New York's bullpen is No. 2 in the league in striking out 10.23 batters per nine innings. Miami's offense is below-average in several major categories, including runs scored, doubles, hits, walks and OPS.
Why you should back the Marlins
Run prevention should be a significant strength for Miami on Friday behind the arm of Sandy Alcantara. The talented right-hander is a former All-Star and he has a 1.72 ERA this season. Alcantara leads the National League in both innings pitched (99.1) and hits allowed (6.1 per nine innings), and he has a 0.96 WHIP this season. Opponents average only 0.4 home runs per nine innings with a .545 OPS against Alcantara, and he generates 3.21 strikeouts for every walk.
At home, Alcantara has a 1.36 ERA, and he tossed eight innings of one-run ball against the Mets in his last outing. New York's offense has been effective this season, but the Mets do have offensive shortcomings. The visitors are below the National League average in doubles (107), home runs (66) and walks (221), with a bottom-five mark in the NL with only 27 stolen bases this season.
How to make Marlins vs. Mets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 8.5 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Mets vs. Marlins? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.