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In just a few years' time, the San Diego Padres have gone from the intersection of irrelevance and mockery to the brink of being one of the most relevant teams in baseball. They aren't the most; that distinction goes to the rival to the north that is also the defending champion. The Yankees and other mega-market teams are still going to get more attention, nationally, but few are more interesting and exciting heading toward the 2021 season.

After signing Manny Machado to the biggest contract in club history and with exciting, young talent on hand, the Padres were a trendy playoff pick heading into 2020. Still, they were coming off back-to-back last-place finishes and hadn't had a winning record since 2010. We needed to see them actually win on the field. 

And though it was a 60-game season, we sure saw it. They were one of the best and most exciting teams in baseball. Slam Diego was born and they advanced past the wild-card round. Then they ran into the buzzsaw Dodgers -- with their starting pitching depleted -- and were swept. 

It already felt like a beginning. Then they went out and acquired Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish, former Cy Young winner Blake Snell and talented Joe Musgrove in trades. Then they made sure Fernando Tatis Jr. isn't going anywhere with a Statue Contract. It was a hell of an offseason. Quite a whirlwind. 

Some might say now the hard work begins, though, because the time for being the cute newcomer on the block should be over. The Padres have their sights on toppling the mighty Dodgers and bringing the first World Series title to San Diego.

Win total projection, odds

  • 2021 SportsLine projection: 88-74
  • World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +900
  • 2020 Record: 37-23 (won wild-card round 2-1 over STL; lost NLDS 3-0 to LAD)

Projected Lineup

  1. Trent Grisham, CF
  2. Fernando Tatis, SS
  3. Manny Machado, 3B
  4. Eric Hosmer, 1B
  5. Tommy Pham, LF
  6. Wil Myers, RF
  7. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
  8. Victor Caratini, C

Bench: C Luis Campusano, IF Ha-Seong Kim, UT Jurickson Profar, OF Jorge Mateo

First off, the catcher slot will change once Austin Nola returns from a fractured finger, though Caratini retains the role he brought with him from Chicago as Darvish's personal catcher. 

Profar will get a reasonable number of starts and let's keep an eye on Kim. At age 24 in Korean Baseball Organization last season, he hit .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 109 RBI, 111 runs and 23 steals in 138 games. 

Projected rotation, bullpen

  1. Yu Darvish, RHP
  2. Blake Snell, LHP
  3. Joe Musgrove, RHP
  4. Chris Paddack, RHP
  5. Dinelson Lamet, RHP

Bullpen: CL Emilio Pagan, SU Drew Pomeranz, SU Mark Melancon, MR Pierce Johnson, MR Keone Kela, MR Tim Hill, MR Craig Stammen, MR Dan Altavilla, LR Adrian Morejon

An important note right off the top is that a healthy Lamet is obviously better than the fifth starter. We're just slotting him here for now because he's slowly working his way toward joining the rotation after an elbow injury late last season. It's possible he opens the season on the injured list, but we'll hold out hope he waits until they need a fifth starter and then is plugged in. If not, look for Morejon to begin the season as the fifth starter. 

Also, keep in mind top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore likely figures in the picture at some point, whether the rotation or bullpen. 

The bullpen has a host of injuries and we might again see a Ryan Weathers appearance, though he was mostly thrust into playoff duty due to injuries. 

At closer, early camp returns make it sound like Pagan is the man. Pomeranz is left-handed and, as such, would benefit from more flexibility than simply the ninth, but he's also a candidate. New signee Melancon has plenty of closing experience and could also handle the role. No matter how they line up, these are the three guys taking care of the final three innings in close games once the starter is lifted. 

Here are three things to know about the 2021 Padres.

1. The power-speed combo

The beauty of calling a team "fun" is that there aren't really set parameters that can be quantified. The Padres last year were incredibly fun and part of it was the freshness of their contention. I doubt they become "old" to people quickly -- after all, it was only 60 games and they didn't even reach the NLCS -- but something that it seems to me is fun is having a bunch of players who hit for power and are still athletic enough to steal some bases. 

If you agree, boy, have I got a team for you! 

The Padres were third in baseball last season in slugging percentage, third in home runs and first in steals. 

After years of training our brains to certain stat thresholds over the course of 162 games, it's a lot easier to see how the players were performing if we prorate the numbers from 2020. If you take every number times 2.7 (60 times 2.7 is 162), it illustrates just how homer-and-steal prolific the Padres were in 2020. 

  • Tatis was playing like a 46-homer, 30-steal guy
  • Machado, who only had five steals the previous year, had six with his 16 bombs, so the pace was 43 homers and 16 steals.
  • Grisham was on pace for 27 homers and 27 steals. 
  • Profar was pacing at 19 and 19. 
  • Pham only managed 31 games, but we've seen his capabilities here in the past. He's been a 20-20 guy twice, including 2019. 
  • Myers clubbed 15 homers. He only stole two bases, but he's been over 15 three different times in his career with a high of 28 steals in 2016. 
  • Even Hosmer stole four bases after zero in 2019 while hitting nine homers. He was at a pace of 24 homers and 11 stolen bases. 

That's an incredibly fun offense before we even account from what Kim might bring (again, 30 homers and 23 steals in 138 games in South Korea last year). 

2. Rotation consistency? 

The hype around the trio of rotation acquisitions this offseason was warranted, but by no means is every starter a sure thing to pitch to his ceiling all season. 

  • Darvish is on a great run right now. After getting fully healthy and working through some mechanical issues, he was stellar in the second half of 2019 and nearly won a Cy Young last season. Before that, he often battled injuries and inconsistency for the better part of five years. He's 34 now and keep in mind he was on a full workload in Japan by the time he was 20 (with nearly 250 innings before his age-20 season). 
  • Snell's ERA+ in his five MLB seasons, respectively: 113, 104, 217, 104, 131. Remember those are ballpark-adjusted with 100 being average. His Cy Young season is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Last season was very good, but he also led the majors in wild pitches and only averaged 4 1/2 innings per start. Even in the playoffs, he never completed a sixth inning. Was it all the Rays being overly protective, or will Snell fall apart in the sixth or seventh inning when given the chance? 
  • Musgrove has a career 4.33 ERA. Last season was his first with a better-than-average ERA, but it was just 3.86. The 55 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings, among other things, showed the upside, but it was still only eight starts, most against sub-par offenses (remember, he was in the NL Central with the Pirates). 
  • Paddack was the Opening Day starter last year and ended up taking a big step back as a sophomore. Most of the downturn could be pinned on three outings (maybe throw in a fourth) in just a 12-start season and, again, let's note the weird circumstances of the pandemic season. Perhaps Paddack will return to 2019 form when he looked like a future All-Star. If so, that's a nasty back-end guy. If not, it's a trouble spot. 
  • Lamet still hasn't made more than 21 starts in a season and his elbow remains a concern. He also has ace upside. 

The potential for disaster here is a worst-case scenario where Darvish and Lamet are afflicted with major injuries, Snell proves he can't go deep into games and Musgrove and Paddack are mediocre or worse. 

Of course, the best outcome -- or even just a good and realistic one -- from each guy means the Padres have one of, if not the, best rotation(s) in baseball.

3. Avoid the backslide; prove no fluke 

As noted, an awful lot has changed for these guys in a very short period of time. Many teams after being an upstart will attest it's a lot different being the hunted than the hunter. 

Through this lens, the good news is they are still chasing the Dodgers -- who didn't exactly get worse in the offseason -- and didn't even get to the NLCS. There's still plenty of work to be done and there's no chance they are overall satisfied with just the one playoff run in a shortened season. I can't imagine there's a lack of motivation in that clubhouse. 

Still, that they were on pace to win 100 games last year doesn't mean they would have won that many in an actual 162-game season. We can't be sure without seeing it for a full season. The task at hand for this group of position players is to prove that stellar and fun offense is repeatable and then sustainable for 162. Avoiding the backslide is of utmost importance, especially with the Dodgers in the same division and the playoff field being just five teams per league instead of eight. 

And then there are the playoffs. If the Padres play to regular-season expectations, exiting the NLDS without a win, or losing the one-and-done wild card game, won't be acceptable this time. 

Yes, the expectations have been successfully raised in San Diego. Padres fans have waited a long time to have such a relevant and talented team. That part has been accomplished. The next step is to start flying some championship flags.