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The Tampa Bay Rays seek to sustain an upward trajectory on Monday with a challenging matchup. The Rays are on a three-game winning streak, and Tampa Bay begins a three-game road set against the Boston Red Sox. Fenway Park showcases the AL East matchup on Independence Day, with the Rays bringing a 43-36 record. Boston is 44-35 after a win over the Chicago Cubs on Sunday.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the -115 money-line favorite (risk $115 to win $100) for this 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 9.5 in the latest Rays vs. Red Sox odds. Before making any Red Sox vs. Rays picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. and it is 271-232 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning well over $500 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Red Sox vs. Rays, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Rays vs. Red Sox:

  • Red Sox vs. Rays money line: Red Sox -115, Rays -105
  • Red Sox vs. Rays over-under: 9.5 runs
  • Red Sox vs. Rays run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
  • TB: The Rays are 18-19 in road games
  • BOS: The Red Sox are 20-16 in home games
  • Red Sox vs. Rays picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Why you should back the Rays

Tampa Bay's team speed is impressive and puts pressure on the opposition. The Rays are No. 2 in the American League with 55 stolen bases, and Tampa Bay also has 11 triples already this season. The Rays also project well in the pitching department for Monday's game, beginning with Jalen Beeks to start the game. The 28-year-old left-hander may not stay in the game long as an opener, but he has a 2.91 ERA since the beginning of the 2020 campaign and a 2.70 ERA in 2022. That includes 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.08 WHIP this season. 

Beeks is stellar with a 1.76 ERA on the road, and he can hand the ball to an effective bullpen. Tampa Bay's relief corps has a 3.36 ERA this season, and the Rays are No. 3 in the American League in walking only 3.06 per nine innings with a reliever on the mound. Boston's offense is below the AL average in home runs, triples, and stolen bases this season, and the Rays will have opportunities to find success.

Why you should back the Red Sox

Boston's run production is highly impressive this season. The Red Sox rank comfortably in the top five of the American League in several key metrics, including runs scored, hits, doubles, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Boston is also set to deploy an effective starting pitcher on Monday. 31-year-old former All-Star Michael Wacha will start for the Red Sox, and he has a 2.69 ERA this season. 

He has allowed less than a home run per nine innings in 2022, with Wacha posting a 1.11 WHIP and opponents producing an ugly .621 OPS against him. Wacha has been notably dominant at Fenway Park, posting a 1.39 ERA, and he faces a vulnerable Tampa Bay offense. The Rays are in the bottom tier of the American League in overall offensive production, including mediocre-or-worse marks in runs scored, home runs, strikeout avoidance, and OPS this season.

How to make Rays vs. Red Sox picks

SportsLine's model is projecting 9.9 total runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Red Sox vs. Rays? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.