If Major League Baseball has a "main character," then it stands to reason that he is Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani. After all, Ohtani is more than the best player in the sport: he's a potential deadline trade candidate who is on the precipice of signing an enormous and historic contract in free agency.
It's borderline trite to remark such a thing, but sometimes the truth grows stale: in nearly 50 years of free agency, the marketplace has never seen a player with Ohtani's profile. He'll enter the winter as a 29-year-old with a lengthy track record of both hitting and pitching at well-above-average thresholds.
Even so, all of the league's high rollers are expected to chase Ohtani's services this offseason. That group includes the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, among others. You needn't take an economics class -- and you shouldn't, if you value your soul -- to understand that great demand and limited supply (there is but one Ohtani) is a recipe for a big-time bidding war.
It's an overdue development for Ohtani, who received just a $2.3 million signing bonus when he signed because of when he came over. Had he waited a few more years, he would've been eligible to sign a massive deal. Instead, he settled for the league minimum and trifling salaries for a player of his talent level and production. To date, Ohtani has cleared around $40 million total. He could make more than that on an annual basis soon enough.
Contract negotiations are mostly informed by precedent. If that comparable player received that much at that time, then this similar player should receive this much at this time. There's more to it than that, of course, especially for those on either side who fancy themselves to be artists or innovators. The bulk of it, though, is looking at the past and adjusting it for the present and future.
There is no precedent for Ohtani's situation. He and his suitors will be stepping onto wholly uncharted land. Where that takes them, exactly, is anyone's guess.
With that in mind, we here at CBS Sports decided it would be a prudent time to poll a collection of industry insiders for their predictions on how much Ohtani will fetch over the offseason. Do note that these insiders work in a variety of roles for a variety of teams, ranging from scouts to analysts and above. They were all granted anonymity to avoid any tampering-related accusations.
What the industry says
The magic number on the guesses submitted to CBS Sports is "5," -- as in "$500 million." No prediction was shy of that number, and many exceeded it.
One source predicted Ohtani would fetch $500 million exactly over 10 or more years, as part of a contract that provided him with several opt-out opportunities. Another said $545 million over nine years. A third forecasted $550 million with an opt-out clause coming as early as after the first season. (It is worth noting that these predictions were made independent of the scenario where Ohtani is willing to sign an extension with a team who trades for him at the deadline and therefore gains exclusive negotiating rights through the World Series.)
For those unfamiliar with the "opt-out" clause, it's a mechanism that has become commonplace at the top end of the market. With the Competitive Balance Tax imposing an unofficial salary cap on the league, teams have had to find non-financial ways to sweeten their proposals. The opt-out clause is an easy way to reward the best players without tacking on additional zeroes.
Offering a player the chance to opt out -- that is, to decide between remaining locked in a deal or testing the free-agent market at various agreed-upon points -- has become a favored approach. As the guesses above indicate, teams can and will hand out opt-out clauses more liberally to elite players.
Sure, it may mean that a player ends up leaving just a couple of years into a long-term deal, but teams will take that if it's the difference between having the player on their roster for a limited time and never having him at all. (There's another conversation to be had about teams gladly handing out opt-out clauses a few years into 10-plus-year deals to avoid the potentially lean years of a contract as players age past their statistical primes.)
Giving Ohtani $500-million plus the ability to re-enter the market if he's dissatisfied -- with his contract, the fit, whatever -- would be as close as it gets in modern baseball to handing him a blank check.
The expectation with Ohtani, then, is that he's going to get everything: the massive sum, the long term, and the ability to pick and choose if he wants to take the off ramp at various points. We feel comfortable saying the most accurate prediction came from one source who declined to put numbers on their guess. "Many of the dollars?" they said in response. "All of them?"
It seems so.
What history says
After reading the above guesses, you might wonder where Ohtani's contract would rank historically if he does sail into the $500-plus million range. Very well, as it turns out, according to the data provided by Cot's Contracts.
Here are the five richest contracts in MLB history, based on total value:
- Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30)
- Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
- Aaron Judge, $360,000,000 (2023-31)
- Manny Machado, $350,000,000 (2023-33)
- Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
And here are the five richest from an average annual value perspective:
- Max Scherzer, $43,333,333 (2022-24)/Justin Verlander, $43,333,333 (2023-24)
- Aaron Judge, $40,000,000 (2023-31)
- Jacob deGrom, $37,000,000 (2023-27)
- Gerrit Cole, $36,000,000 (2020-28)
If the insiders who spoke to CBS Sports are even close to correct, and Ohtani's contract carries a value exceeding half a billion, then he stands a great chance of shattering both records in one sweep. (The exact term will dictate the AAV portion: $500 million over 10 or 11 years gets it done, but not beyond that.)
What's more is that Ohtani might well end up signing the largest contract ever awarded to any athlete in any major American pro sports league. That honor currently belongs to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, whose deal has him clearing $503 million over the course of 10 seasons.
We'll have to wait a few more months to find out the exact details. But this much is for certain: Ohtani is going to become an extremely wealthy person.
