After back-to-back victories, the Oklahoma City Thunder aim to take control of a best-of-seven series 2020 NBA Playoffs series against the Houston Rockets on Saturday. In contrast, James Harden and the Rockets will look to restore order after a couple of shaky performances. Russell Westbrook (quad) is expected to return after a multi-game absence, with Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) ruled out for Houston. The game gets underway at HP Field House in Orlando at 6:30 p.m. ET.
William Hill lists Houston as the five-point favorite, unchanged from the opening line, in the latest Rockets vs. Thunder odds. The over-under for total points is 228, up 1.5 points from the opener. Before making any Thunder vs. Rockets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 59-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. It's also 7-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Thunder. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Thunder vs. Rockets:
- Rockets vs. Thunder spread: Rockets -5
- Rockets vs. Thunder over-under: 228 points
- Rockets vs. Thunder money line: Rockets -200, Thunder +175
- HOU: The Rockets are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
- OKC: The Thunder are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Rockets can cover
Harden is the best player in the series and, in the NBA, that is a huge domino. The MVP-caliber guard is averaging 32.0 points, 8.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game in the series, picking up where he left off after a fantastically productive regular season. Harden has been limited, at least in part, by Luguentz Dort, but his gravity does allow for other members of the Rockets to get quality looks. As such, Houston is generating a whopping 54 3-point attempts per game in the series, knocking down almost 36 percent and leaning into its analytically-friendly approach.
Defensively, the Rockets have done an admirable job in this series, holding the Thunder below their regular season baseline by allowing only 1.09 points per possession. A key component in that relative success is Houston avoiding the defensive rebounding issues that plague small-ball teams, and the Rockets are grabbing a respectable 75 percent of available rebounds after a missed shot by the Thunder.
Why the Thunder can cover
Throughout the season, the Thunder have exceeded expectations, and that continues with their performance in this playoff series. Oklahoma City's defense has been particularly noteworthy, especially in Game 3 and Game 4 victories. Against a high-powered Houston offense, the Thunder allowed just 1.02 points per possession in those two contests, posting an 86 percent defensive rebound rate.
Dort is an ace-level defender on Harden, and Billy Donovan's team is able to beat the Rockets on the other end with quality guard play. Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder give the Thunder a trio of quality options against Houston's switch-heavy scheme, and Oklahoma City ranks in the top seven of the NBA in turnover rate and free-throw rate, dating back to the regular season.
How to make Rockets vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Chris Paul and Eric Gordon projected to fall short of their playoff scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Thunder vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread cashes almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Rockets vs. Thunder spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
