The Utah Jazz visit the Memphis Grizzlies for a Game 4 showdown in the 2021 NBA Playoffs on Monday evening. Utah aims to build on back-to-back wins over Memphis, as the Jazz are now leading the series by a 2-1 margin. The Grizzlies tipped off the best-of-seven first-round series with a road win before faltering in the last two games. Memphis was 18-18 at home in the regular season, with Utah sporting a 21-15 road mark.
Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET in Memphis. The latest Jazz vs. Grizzlies odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Utah as a 5.5-point favorite. The over-under for total points expected is set at 224.5. Before finalizing any Grizzlies vs. Jazz picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $800 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the first full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen massive returns.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies spread: Jazz -5.5
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies over-under: 224.5 points
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies money line: Jazz -230, Grizzlies +195
- Utah: The Jazz are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- MEM: The Grizzlies are 3-6-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Jazz can cover
Utah has clearly looked like the superior team in the last two games. Donovan Mitchell's return from an ankle injury coincides with that uptick in play, with Mitchell averaging 27.0 points per game in his two appearances against Memphis. Rudy Gobert continues to serve as Utah's anchor on both ends, averaging 15.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game, and Mike Conley is averaging a robust 23.0 points and 11.5 assists per game against his former team.
As a team, Utah is producing an offensive rating of 125.3 points per 100 possessions against Memphis, and the Jazz are tied for No. 1 in the NBA Playoffs with a 63.5 percent true shooting mark. That comes on the heels of a top-five mark in offensive efficiency (116.5 points per 100 possessions) in the regular season. In short, Memphis does not project to slow Utah down in the series, particularly if the Jazz can replicate their shooting form that led to a league-leading 16.7 3-pointers per game in the regular season.
Why the Grizzlies can cover
Memphis is fighting an uphill battle in overall talent, but the Grizzlies have performed well in the series and have plenty of angles to attack. Second-year point guard Ja Morant has been fantastic, averaging 33.7 points and 6.0 assists per game, and Dillon Brooks is averaging 27.0 points with top-tier defense on the wing. As a team, Memphis is scoring almost 1.19 points per possession, an elite figure, and they are No. 1 in the NBA Playoffs in ball security, turning the ball over on only 9.8 percent of possessions. In the regular season, the Grizzlies also ranked in the top five in both offensive rebound rate (28.5 percent) and assists (26.9 per game).
On the defensive side, Memphis has faced trouble through three games, but the Grizzlies were No. 7 in the NBA in defensive rating (110.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). They can make hay by generating havoc, as the Grizzlies led the NBA in steals (9.1 per game), during the 2020-21 regular season.
How to make Grizzlies vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 219 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Grizzlies vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.