There are two schools of thought when it comes to betting on All-Star Games. The first, more prudent logic is that doing so is absolutely insane. This is a game with no stakes. Practically nobody plays with any meaningful effort until the final minutes. These teams have one practice, and the word "practice" is defined pretty loosely. You're just throwing money into the void by betting on something so random.
The second, more adventurous perspective is to embrace the randomness. Remember, the books know as little about what is going to happen tonight as you do. Therefore, if you feel as though you have any information or perspective that creates an edge, there's probably a fair bit of value on whatever you're picking.
So, with the 2023 All-Star Game approaching, let's take a look at the betting odds tonight and try to determine where there is money to be made:
All lines via Caesar's Sportsbook
Team Giannis (+118) over Team LeBron
An important disclaimer: LeBron James has never lost an All-Star Game in which he served as a captain. He's 5-0 since the NBA introduced the format in 2018. As mixed as LeGM's history is with the Los Angeles Lakers, his track record in the All-Star Draft is unimpeachable.
However, we have to acknowledge here that the rosters haven't even been picked as of this writing, and yet Team Giannis is already an underdog. There is no home-court advantage or injury news dictating that line. Team LeBron has been a favorite since the moment odds were produced. He will likely remain the favorite regardless of who each of them actually pick to play on their teams.
This is where the randomness of the All-Star Game works in your favor. It's the ALL-STAR Game! Everyone on both rosters is awesome. There's no strategy or coaching here. There's hardly any effort. This game should, logically, be treated as a coin flip. If you assume that it is one, you're essentially getting an extra 18 cents on the dollar to take Team Giannis. The value is too good to pass up. Rarely does a line so clearly contradict common sense. If you want to believe that James has somehow unlocked the secret to drafting All-Star teams, by all means, limit your return and take him. If you're interested in the proper value play, however, it's clearly with Team Giannis.
Under (323.5)
We've had three All-Star Games played with the new Elam Ending format. The total scores for those games have been 312, 320 and 323 points. Technically, all three have gone under that total. The last two came fairly close to the over, of course, but we should also factor in public betting behavior. We should expect most of the money here to come in on the over simply because All-Star Games have a reputation for being high-scoring. From that perspective, you're probably getting a bit of value on the Under line.
Ja Morant (+1200) for All-Star MVP
Speaking of opportunities to bet against the public, James (+525) is the current All-Star MVP favorite. That makes little sense. He's dealing with a foot injury that cost him two games before the All-Star break. He's not going to play enough minutes or take enough shots to win this award. The same is true of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid, who are also playing through injuries.
Without knowing the rosters, we can't say for certain who the best value is going to be, but there are a few rules of thumb that we can work off of. The only big man to win MVP in the past decade was Anthony Davis, who scored an All-Star record 52 points in the process. We can therefore likely rule out the bigs. We also probably want to pick a starter, because minutes will matter quite a bit here, and starters are the likeliest players to be on the floor for the Elam Ending. Lastly, players who are capable of putting up some highlights are always going to have an edge in this setting.
That points us towards a few players. Damian Lillard is going to take a few shots from absurd distances, but at +600, his odds aren't appealing enough. The same goes for Donovan Mitchell at +650. Jayson Tatum has a chance to be the game's closer, but he's probably not going to put on much of a show from a highlight perspective. Luka Doncic has a slightly better chance at doing so, but he's averaged only eight points per game across three All-Star appearances. He doesn't take this game especially seriously.
This leads us to Ja Morant at +1200. He was named a starter as a replacement for Stephen Curry. He'll have the ball plenty. He's going to try to throw down a few highlight dunks. And if you think this matters, this is only his second All-Star Game. The experience is still relatively novel to him, so he's likelier to take things seriously. If you're going to bet on All-Star MVP, he would be my pick.
