The Miami Heat go on the road to play against the Boston Celtics in the first matchup of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals on Wednesday night. These teams squared off four times during the regular season, with the series being split 2-2. The Heat are 13-5 against the spread in the last 18 meetings in Boston. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days of rest. Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee) remain out for Miami.
Tip-off at TD Garden in Boston is at 8:30 p.m. ET for this 2023 NBA playoff series. Boston is the 8.5-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 213. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Matthew Severance has to say.
Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over his past 152 NBA picks, he is 99-52-1 against the spread, returning $3,310 for $100 players.
Now, Severance has set its sights on Game 1 of Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:
- Heat vs. Celtics: Boston -8.5
- Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 213 points
- Heat vs. Celtics money line: Miami +285, Boston -365
- MIA: The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win
- BOS: The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days rest
- Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover
Guard Max Strus has been consistently able to space the floor throughout the postseason. Strus does a great job moving without the ball and owns a quick release on his jumpers. The DePaul product averages 10.9 points and 3.5 rebounds while shooting 37% from downtown in the 2023 NBA playoffs. He has dropped at least 14 points in five straight games, including in Game 5 against the New York Knicks when Strus produced 14 points and knocked down four 3-pointers.
Forward Caleb Martin is another space creator off the bench. Martin does damage in transition and has a reliable jumper as he's scored in double figures in three of his last five games. In Game 2 against the Knicks, Martin had 22 points, eight boards, and made four 3-pointers. Additionally, guard Kyle Lowry provides this group with a savvy veteran playmaker. Lowry scans the floor very well, has a smooth jumper, and the six-time All-Star finished with 11 points and nine assists in the close-out win over New York. See which team to pick here.
Why the Celtics can cover
Guard Marcus Smart is a feisty and tough two-way force. Smart plays exceptional defense due to his instincts and quick hands, and he can create his own shot while setting up teammates. Smart is averaging 15.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game in the 2023 NBA playoffs. In Game 6, he finished with 22 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists.
Guard Malcolm Brogdon supplies Boston with another solid scoring playmaker off the bench. Brogdon has the ability to create shots for himself and owns a smooth jumper. The Virginia product is putting up 14.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game in the postseason. He's scored at least 15 points in six of his last eight matchups, including on May 11 against the Philadelphia 76ers when Brogdon totaled 16 points and six boards. See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks
Severance is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread to back, at SportsLine.
Who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the expert who has returned over $3,310 to $100 players over his last 152 NBA picks, and find out.
