Bucks vs. Warriors odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 8 predictions from simulation on 26-13 run

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Wednesday's Bucks vs. Warriors matchup 10,000 times.

By CBS Sports Staff

Jan 8, 2020 at 10:42 am ET • 3 min read

Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors will host Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday. The Warriors will be without D'Angelo Russell (shoulder) and Kevon Looney (abdomen), but Green (ankle) will return from a one-game absence. For Milwaukee, Antetokounmpo (back soreness, illness) is listed as probable, and George Hill (illness) is out.

Tip-off for this one is set for 10:00 p.m ET from the Chase Center. Sportsbooks list the Bucks as 13.5-point road favorites, while the over-under for total points is 219.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Warriors odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 11 on a blistering 26-13 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Warriors on Wednesday. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Warriors vs. Bucks:

Bucks vs. Warriors spread: Bucks -13.5
Bucks vs. Warriors over-under: 219.5 points
Bucks vs. Warriors money line: Milwaukee -1600, Golden State +900
MIL: The Bucks are 5-2 ATS as the road team since December 1.
GSW: Golden State is 0-3 ATS in 2020, but has a 5-5 ATS record in the past 10 games.

Why the Bucks can cover

The model is well aware of what a massive mismatch this is. Milwaukee (32-6) boasts the best record in the NBA, and its average point differential (+12.9) is nearly double the next-highest team's (+7.8). The Bucks have been the best team in the NBA, and it's not even close.

Meanwhile, Golden State has the league's third-worst point differential (-7.7), and only the Atlanta Hawks have a worse record. The Warriors are just 3-13 in games Russell has missed, and without their leading scorer, the Warriors are going to struggle to put points on the board against the NBA's best defense.

But just because Milwaukee is the prohibitive favorite on paper, doesn't mean it will cover the Bucks vs. Warriors spread on the road on Wednesday.

Why the Warriors can cover

The model is also well aware that Milwaukee hasn't been quite as invincible when playing away from the Fiserv Forum. Milwaukee's point differential drops from +13.6 at home to +9.9 on the road, and the difference was even more stark last year in a larger sample size. Milwaukee was 33-8 with a +12.1 point differential when playing at home, which dropped to 27-14 with a +5.7 point differential on the road.

There's also a chance that Antetokounmpo sits this one out or plays limited minutes down the stretch while dealing with an illness, which could allow Golden State (9-29) to sneak in for the backdoor cover. That very thing happened just two games ago against the Spurs. The Bucks were up 17 points when Antetokounmpo exited in the fourth quarter, only to end up winning by nine points, failing to cover the 12-point spread.