The two best words in sports: Game 7. We're set for two of them in the NBA, the first of which takes place in Boston on Sunday night as the Celtics play host to the Cavs with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. Largely, you can forget what's happened to this point in this Eastern Conference finals. This is one game. The Celtics have the home-court advantage and the Cavs have the best player. Let's get it on.
Here are five things to watch for in this matchup:
1. How much is too much LeBron for Cavs?
This question goes for both teams. First, let's focus on the Cavs. Do they think they can win with LeBron carrying the entire load? In these playoffs, LeBron has scored 40-plus seven times. The Cavs have won six of those games. The one team that has managed to beat Cleveland when LeBron has gotten 40? The Celtics in Game 2. He went for 42, 12 assists and 10 rebounds, and Boston still won by 13. So, how much does LeBron look to get other guys going early in this game?
If he focuses on it too much, and J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver and Jeff Green aren't hitting shots, Cleveland could find itself in an early hole from which they might never emerge as that crowd starts to get crazier and crazier. This is a very fine line. Always has been for LeBron. He is, in many ways, a pass-first player. That's his basketball DNA. His most important evolution as perhaps the greatest player in history has been his increasing awareness, and acceptance, of his responsibility to take over as a scorer when his team really needs it.
The Cavs need it in Game 7, to put it mildly, and the chances of him not delivering something close to 40 points, or some crazy triple-double, are almost zero. The 34.1 points he averages in elimination games is the best mark in NBA history. But again, the Celtics have proven they can withstand, and ultimately prevail over, a dominant LeBron performance. LeBron is so smart. And he knows this. It will be very interesting to watch how long he can remain patient if his guys struggle to get going early, or, put another way, how quickly he decides to go into take-over mode and the implications that might have from a fatigue standpoint in the latter stages of the game.
2. How much is too much LeBron for Celtics?
Same question, from the other vantage point. How much LeBron domination will the Celtics be able to stomach before they start bending their entire defense toward stopping him? For most of this series, the Celtics have allowed LeBron to play relatively free of true double teams. They've let him go one on one on the perimeter vs. Aron Baynes. They've let Terry Rozier guard him in the post. They've switched everything and dealt with whatever matchup results of those switches in an effort to stay attached to shooters.
They've been very diligent in this approach.
It has worked for the most part, especially at home.
But, this is Game 7. Patience runs very thin in Game 7. If LeBron gets it in his head to just kill the Celtics, and the Cavs get out to a lead, how long until the Celtics feel too much pressure to keep letting him play on an island? And if they start sending help, how long until George Hill is having another 20-point performance like he did in game 6? How long until Korver gets going? Even with LeBron scoring 46 in Game 6, you could argue the Celtics still would've won that game had Hill and Jeff Green not combined for 34 points.
So, do the Celtics double LeBron? If so, how often? And do they fully commit to the double, or just hedge their bets with a quick show and recover? They have a plan for all this. But like Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face. If LeBron hits them with a haymaker, which he almost certainly will, how long will they be able to keep their wits?
3. How does Love's absence affect each team?
Kevin Love is out with a possible concussion after colliding with Jayson Tatum early in Game 6. It's a total bummer, though when you're playing a Celtics team that is without its two best players and has been for the entirely of the playoffs, you're not going to get a lick of sympathy.
For the Cavs, Love's absence means, first and foremost, one less shooter and floor-stretcher to allow LeBron maximum space to do his thing. Love is inconsistent, but in this game, the Cavs might only need one other guy to score big to beat the Celtics, and Love is certainly a candidate to do that any given night. Larry Nance likely sees a lot more minutes, and Jeff Green will start in Love's place. This does make the Cavs more versatile defensively, which brings us to the Celtics and how they will approach the change in Cleveland's lineup.
Brad Stevens moved to a big starting lineup in Game 5 with Aron Baynes alongside Al Horford Game 5, and it paid dividends with Baynes getting on the glass and being active around the rim, especially as Horford struggles to have his normal impact against Tristan Thompson. With Green now in for Love, does Stevens stay with Baynes and try to beat up Cleveland's smaller lineup on the glass, or does he put Marcus Morris back in the starting lineup to match Cleveland's versatility?
Either way, Love being out will effect rotations throughout the game, and where we'll likely see this all culminate is at the end of the game rather than the start. By the fourth quarter, if its close, it will be very interesting to see how Stevens plays it, big or small, or if it's almost a possession-by-possession thing.
4. Is Boston's youthful Big 3 up for this?
Jayson Tatum has been beyond phenomenal in this series, in these whole playoffs and for this entire season. He is magnetically talented. But he wasn't supposed to be a go-to scorer in a Game 7 to go the NBA Finals so early in his career. If the poise with which he's handled everything else in his rookie campaign is any indication, he'll be fine. But this is a big thing to watch for, because Tatum, flat-out, is the Celtics' best one-on-one creator across the board.
Likewise, Jaylen Brown has cemented himself as an emerging star, if he's not one already. Can he go out and get 25 in a Game 7 vs. LeBron? And Rozier, another guy who has almost single-handedly won games for this team in these playoffs: Can he knock down four or five 3s? Can all three of these guys make those pivotal plays in pivotal moments? They have gotten this far without Kyrie Irving, remarkably, but Game 7s tend to be about stars. Are these guys ready to truly be stars? One, if not two of them, will likely have to be if the Celtics are going to keep LeBron from an eighth straight Finals appearances.
5. Who is the X-factor for each team?
To me, it's Tristan Thompson and Al Horford. They'll be matched up for much of the game in all likelihood, and while Horford is not a guy who is going to go out and get you 30, its hard to imagine the Celtics winning if he's completely erased by Thompson, which has happened at various points in this series. Horford has to be a capable hub of the offense. He has to be able to score 15, at least. He has to do his part in keeping the Cavs off the offensive glass (the 15 offensive boards the Cavs pulled down in Game 5 murdered Boston).
Horford, however, is a borderline star player. We should expect this of him. Thompson is a true X-factor, a guy who, not that long ago, wasn't getting a single minute of playing time. By now we know that he tortures Horford defensively, but his offensive impact can be overlooked. He is a capable roll man with LeBron, and he can be huge on the offensive glass. There have been times he has been the second-best player on the Cavs in these playoffs, and there have been times he has been just another guy out there. If he's the former, the Celtics could be in real trouble.
