Now that we're in the thick of the NBA playoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
I thought the Celtics were dead after Game 5 of the Philadelphia series. I was clearly wrong, but after watching the first three games of this series, it's worth asking if the ending of that series had more to do with the 76ers than the Celtics. Joe Mazzulla openly admitted that he'd lost the locker room after Game 3 against the Heat. That's just not something a team can come back from. Boston's season should end on Tuesday. The Pick: Heat -1.5
Boston's decision to go small and start Derrick White was meant to juice their own offense in Game 3. Over a longer sample, it likely will, but it also had the effect of giving Miami's perimeter players a small guard to hunt. There are theoretical adjustments there, but Mazzulla has been so slow to adjust all postseason, and Miami's 3-point shooting has rendered so many possible solutions moot, that it's hard to imagine Boston figuring out Miami's offense in time for them to turn this series around. The Pick: Over 216
Jimmy Butler has reached eight rebounds exactly in three of his past four games, but remember, one of those games was against the bigger Knicks and another came against Boston's double-big lineup. Now that the Celtics are playing small, someone is going to capitalize on the glass, and it probably won't be Bam Adebayo, as he is frequently defending on the perimeter against a Boston team with plenty of shooting. Kevin Love doesn't play enough minutes to be a viable bet, but Butler does an excellent job of navigating close quarters to steal rebounds, and without any size to deter him, he should reach eight rebounds again in Game 4. The Pick: Butler Over 7.5 Rebounds