The Boston Celtics have won two straight over the Miami Heat in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, and they'll look to even the series with another victory in Game 6 on Saturday. The Celtics will be confident they can force a decisive Game 7 thanks to their impressive road record in the 2023 NBA playoffs. Boston has actually been better on the road this postseason (5-3) than it has been at home (5-5). Meanwhile, Miami is 5-1 on its home court in the playoffs, making Saturday's showdown a must-see matchup. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Heat, with Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) listed as questionable for the Celtics.
Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 2.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before locking in any Heat vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -2.5
- Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 210.5 points
- Celtics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -160, Heat +135
- BOS: The Celtics are 27-22 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 20-28-2 against the spread in home games
- Celtics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Celtics can cover
The Celtics jumped out to an early lead in Game 5 and never looked back. Boston established a 35-20 lead after the first quarter before eventually winning 110-97. Derrick White was the Celtics' leading scorer with 24 points, and he's scored double-digit points in four of the five games played against Miami. He's been lethal from behind the arc, knocking down at least three 3-pointers in every game during the 2023 Eastern Conference finals.
Jayson Tatum has also been extremely effective in the postseason, and he stuffed the stat sheet in Boston's Game 4 victory on the road on Tuesday, recording 33 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists. Over his last 10 games, Tatum is averaging 31 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists. He's knocked down at least 50% of his field goal attempts in four of the first five games of this series. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
The series shifts back to Miami, where the Heat have been dominant in the postseason. Miami is out-scoring opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions at Kaseya Center on the way to a 6-1 record in the playoffs. While much of Miami's uptick in the postseason can be tied to the offense scoring more than 1.16 points per possession across three series, the Heat are capable of locking down on defense. The Heat are giving up fewer than 1.06 points per possession in playoff home games, with opponents shooting only 42.7% from the field and 31.2% from 3-point range in Miami.
The Heat also lead the entire playoffs with 19.8 points per game off turnovers, and opponents are shooting only 33.9% from 3-point range. Miami creates havoc with 7.8 steals per game in the series against Boston, and the Heat are clearly established over a large defensive sample, The Heat ranked in the six of the NBA in fast break points allowed, points allowed in the paint, steals per game, turnovers created per game, defensive rebound rate, second-chance points allowed per game and free throw prevention during the regular season. See which team to pick here.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season.