Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers square off against Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday evening. These teams could easily face off in round one of the Western Conference Playoffs, adding to the intrigue. On the injury front, Patrick Beverley (calf) and Montrezl Harrell (not with team) are out for the Clippers, while Seth Curry (calf) is doubtful to play for Dallas.
Tip-off is at 6:30 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists Los Angeles as the 4.5-point favorites, up half a point from the opening line, while the over-under, or total number of points expected, is 228 in the latest Clippers vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Clippers picks, check out the latest NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned well over $4,200 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 54-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $1,900 on those picks alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Clippers vs. Mavericks. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers:
- Clippers vs. Mavericks spread: Clippers -4.5
- Clippers vs. Mavericks over-under: 228 points
- Clippers vs. Mavericks money line: Clippers -185, Mavericks +165
- LAC: The Clippers are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 games
- DAL: The Mavericks are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Clippers can cover
The Clippers are tremendous on both ends of the floor, leading to sky-high expectations in the bubble. Doc Rivers' team ranks as a top-three team in the NBA in offensive efficiency, with a strongly above-average offensive rebounding pedigree and the No. 1 free throw rate in the league. Against a Dallas team that deploys a below-average defense, the Clippers should have plenty of room to maneuver.
Beyond that, the Mavericks are the worst team in the NBA at forcing turnovers, which should take a bit of pressure off the Clippers' ball-handlers. Defensively, the Clippers are a top-five unit, with a No. 2 ranking in shooting efficiency allowed. L.A. will have its hands full with the Mavericks' prolific offense but, with a bevy of quality perimeter defenders, the Clippers can put up a fight defensively.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Simply put, the Mavericks are extremely tough to guard. Dallas ranks as the best offensive team in the NBA this season and, to take things further, the Mavericks boast the best offensive rating in the history of the NBA. Doncic, averaging 29.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game, keys the attack, with Porzingis adding 19.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per game this season.
Dallas is a top-four team in both shooting efficiency and turnover avoidance, putting all kinds of pressure on opponents to execute. The Mavericks are not as stout defensively, but Rick Carlisle's team is strong on the defensive glass and relatively adept at preventing opponents from generating free throws. Against a Clippers team that lives at the free-throw line, it will be key for Dallas to prevent trips to the charity stripe.
How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Harrell out and Doncic projected to fall short of his scoring average. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Clippers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Clippers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,200 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.
