Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks host the Charlotte Hornets in an intriguing Eastern Conference clash on Monday. The Hawks will battle plenty of injury questions, however, with Clint Capela (heel) ruled out and De'Andre Hunter (knee) questionable to play. Malik Monk (suspension) remains sidelined for the visiting Hornets. Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena.
Sportsbooks list the Hawks as 4.5-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 223.5 in the latest Hornets vs. Hawks odds after opening at 225. Before making any Hawks vs. Hornets picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 20 a blistering 49-31 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Hornets vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -4.5
- Hornets vs. Hawks over-under: 223.5 points
- Hornets vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -194, Hornets +168
- CHA: Hornets have covered the spread in six straight games
- ATL: Hawks are 2-5 against the spread in the last seven games
Why the Hornets can cover
The model has considered that the Hornets are playing improved basketball at the moment, and that was evident in a home win over the Houston Rockets on Saturday. Charlotte is a top-10 team in the NBA in securing offensive rebounds, and the Hawks rank No. 28 in the NBA in defensive rebounding, allowing opponents to snatch 28 percent of their own misses.
Graham also provides a high-end option offensively, with the second-year guard averaging 17.8 points and 7.5 assists per game as the No. 1 option for Charlotte. Defensively, the Hornets are elite at keeping their opponents away from the free-throw line, with the No. 2 free throw rate allowed in the league this season. Charlotte is also above-average in turnover creation, with Atlanta ranking No. 28 in the NBA in turnover rate on the offensive side.
Why the Hawks can cover
Even so, Charlotte isn't a lock to cover the Hawks vs. Hornets spread. The model also knows the Hawks have the two best players in the game, Young and John Collins. Young is one of the NBA's best and most dynamic offensive players, averaging 29.4 points and 9.2 assists this season. He is the engine of Atlanta's offense and, when he is on the floor, the Hawks are quite dangerous.
Collins is elite from an efficiency perspective, averaging 21.4 points and 10.0 rebounds with a true shooting percentage of over 65. Atlanta can rely on strong foul-drawing, led by Young, and strong offensive rebounding, with Collins leading the charge to the tune of a 25.2 percent offensive rebound rate. Charlotte's offense ranks near the bottom of the NBA in most major categories, and Atlanta has been markedly better (9.8 points per 100 possessions) at home than on the road this season.
How to make Hornets vs. Hawks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Miles Bridges and Dewayne Dedmon projected to exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick here.
So who wins Hornets vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Hawks vs. Hornets spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.