Midday games will be a staple of the NBA's bubble restart in Orlando, and Saturday is no exception. The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will match up in the first game of the day, pitting cross-conference foes against one another with high stakes on both sides. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray headline the festivities for Denver, while Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler lead the way for Miami.
Tip-off is at 1 p.m. ET in Orlando. The Heat are 2.5-point favorites at William Hill after opening as 1.5-point underdogs, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213.5 in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $4,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also was a blistering 52-32 on all top-rated NBA spread picks before the coronavirus shutdown, returning almost $1,700 on those picks alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA lines from William Hill and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Miami -2.5
- Heat vs. Nuggets over-under: 213.5 points
- Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Denver +120, Miami -140
- MIA: Heat are 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games
- DEN: Nuggets are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games
Why the Heat can cover
Denver's defense is more than capable, but Miami owns an elite shooting profile this season. The Heat rank No. 3 in the NBA in shooting efficiency, with Duncan Robinson serving as one of the best floor-spacers in the entire league. Miami is also effective at getting to the free-throw line, headlined by Jimmy Butler and his propensity to attack the rim with ferocity.
On the other end, the Heat are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rebounding, which is key against a Nuggets team that puts consistent pressure on opponents on the offensive glass. Miami also has the luxury of a versatile, top-tier defensive presence in Bam Adebayo, who could serve as an X-factor against Nikola Jokic and Denver's big men.
Why the Nuggets can cover
The Nuggets were a stellar team in the time before the hiatus, and Nikola Jokic is perhaps the biggest reason for their overall effectiveness. The All-NBA center is averaging 20.2 points, 10.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists and is flanked by a high-level guard in Jamal Murray, who is posting 18.8 points and 4.8 assists per contest in his own right.
Denver's offense revolves around Jokic, but the Nuggets are also quite effective at turnover avoidance, with Jokic feeding shooters that are often wide open. Defensively, the Nuggets will have their hands full with Miami, but Denver has the ability to take advantage of the Heat's carelessness in the area of ball security.
How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Jokic and Gary Harris projected to exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model on a 52-32 roll on NBA picks, and find out.
