The No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks host the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday. Games 3 and 4 are taking place in Dallas and the Mavericks head into this matchup with some momentum. In Game 3, Dallas outlasted the Thunder 105-101 to win its second straight game and to claim a 2-1 series edge. Luka Doncic (knee) is again listed as questionable but is expected to play through the injury. 

The game from American Airlines Center will tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET. Dallas is a 1-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 215. Before making any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Thunder and just locked in its 2024 NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Thunder vs. Mavs:

  • Thunder vs. Mavericks spread: Dallas -1
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks over/under: 215 points
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks money line: Dallas -118, OKC -101
  • OKC: 50-38-1 ATS this season 
  • DAL: 54-37 ATS this season 
  • Thunder vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks have a chance to go up 3-1 as they've won Games 2 and 3. They have been getting great contributions from multiple players on the floor. Dallas is led by Doncic, who is a top-notch playmaker. Doncic has impressive shot-creating ability with exceptional vision as a facilitator. He's averaging team-highs in scoring (27.7), rebounds (9.3) and assists (8.7). In his last game, Doncic had 22 points, 15 rebounds and five assists.

Forward PJ Washington has been a strong piece for the Mavericks this series. Washington is a strong finisher around the rim and gives them a solid catch-and-shoot threat. The 25-year-old averages 14.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and makes 41% of his 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA playoffs. He's been a dynamic force over the past two games, scoring 27-plus points. In Game 3, Washington finished with 27 points, six boards and made five threes. See which team to pick here.

Why the Thunder can cover 

Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an effortless scorer. Gilgeous-Alexander thrives in the mid-range area and has the handles to get to his spots with ease. The two-time All-Star leads the team in points (28.9), assists (6.1) and steals (1.3). In his last outing, the 25-year-old had 31 points, 10 rebounds, six assists and five blocks.

Forward Chet Holmgren is listed at 7-foot-1, allowing him to be an elite defender in the paint. Holmgren has a knack for altering shots around the rim but owns the skills to be an effective offensive player. He's putting up 14.9 points, eight rebounds and 2.9 blocks per contest. In Game 3, Holmgren notched 13 points, eight boards and four blocks. See which team to pick here

How to make Thunder vs. Mavericks picks      

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 215 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins Mavericks vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.