The Portland Trail Blazers can take a commanding 3-1 lead in their Western Conference semifinal playoff series over the Denver Nuggets when the teams collide in Game 4 of the 2019 NBA Playoffs at the Moda Center in Portland on Sunday. The teams are coming off an epic quadruple-overtime Game 3, won by Portland, 140-137, which tied a 1953 matchup between the Boston Celtics and Syracuse Nationals as the longest postseason game in NBA history. Friday night's game featured 243 shots, 84 three-pointers, 147 rebounds, 51 fouls and one triple-double. Denver's Nikola Jokic had 33 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists. Tip-off for Game 4 is set for 7 p.m. ET. Portland is favored by 2.5-points in the latest Blazers vs. Nuggets odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 210.5. Before making any Blazers vs. Nuggets picks of your own, be sure to check out the NBA Playoffs 2019 predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 28 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,100 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 28 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has honed in on Nuggets vs. Blazers. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has a very strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that the Blazers' role players, such as Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless, have been key against the Nuggets. Though they combined to score only 21 points in Game 3, they affected the outcome in multiple ways. Aminu pulled down 12 rebounds while Harkless had 10. Both had six offensive rebounds and played effective defense. They've helped Portland limit the Nuggets to 40.6 percent shooting from the field and 29.6 from beyond the arc over the last two games.

In addition, the model has considered that the Blazers have won the last two games despite Damian Lillard having non-Lillard-type performances. He has averaged 21.0 points and shot 36.7 percent from the field and 18.9 percent from beyond the three-point arc in those contests. If he's able to regain his shooting touch, Portland will be that much tougher to beat.

But just because Portland has won the last two games does not guarantee it will cover the Nuggets vs. Blazers spread on Sunday.

Jokic is playing at an elite level. In the series, he is averaging 28.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game. He's also shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 53.8 percent on threes. That continues what he's been doing in the postseason: 24.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game.

The model also knows that the Nuggets are capable of shooting better against Portland. Prior to Game 2, they shot 49.3 percent from the field and 39.0 percent from 3-point land in five games against the Blazers this season. Denver went 4-1 in those games.

So who wins Blazers vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Blazers vs. Nuggets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's up more than $3,100 on its top-rated NBA picks.