The Dallas Mavericks welcome the Brooklyn Nets to American Airlines Center on Thursday evening. The Nets (43-23) are aiming to stop a three-game losing skid, while the Mavs have won four of their last five. Dallas (37-28) is 17-15 at home this season, with Brooklyn bringing an 18-15 road record to the table. Kristaps Porzingis (knee) and Maxi Kleber (Achilles) are out for the Mavericks. James Harden (hamstring) is out for the Nets.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Dallas. The latest Nets vs. Mavericks odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Brooklyn as a 3.5-point favorite. The over-under for total points expected is listed at 234.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Nets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,200 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up over $1,200 on its top-rated picks this season and entered Week 20 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 97-62 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Nets vs. Mavericks spread: Nets -3.5
- Nets vs. Mavericks over-under: 234.5 points
- Nets vs. Mavericks money line: Nets -165, Mavericks +145
- BKN: The Nets are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
- DAL: The Mavericks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Nets can cover
Brooklyn is the NBA's best offensive team, but the Nets are also capable of slowing the Mavericks defensively in a few key areas. The Nets are above-average in shooting efficiency allowed for the season, headlined by a 2-point shooting mark of 52.5 percent. Brooklyn is also a top-12 team in preventing opponents from taking free throws, which helps to swing the math in its favor. Dallas is a below-average offensive rebounding team, collecting only 25 percent of its own missed shots, so the Nets could limit second-chance opportunities.
From there, Brooklyn scores more than 1.17 points per possession, with the best field goal percentage (49.2 percent) in the NBA this season. That top-tier efficiency is invaluable, regardless of opponent, but the Mavericks also struggle mightily to force turnovers. Dallas forces a turnover on only 12.8 percent of defensive possessions, giving the Nets free reign to be aggressive in pursuing quality shot attempts.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is an electric offensive team, and the Mavs are playing at their highest level right now. The Mavericks are a top-eight team in offensive rating (114.3 points per 100 possessions) for the season, but they jump into the top four when looking at the sample after the All-Star break. Dallas is scoring well over 1.16 points per possession since the hiatus, and it is a top-five team in overall shooting efficiency. The Mavericks take care of the ball at an elite level, committing a turnover on only 12.3 percent of possessions, and that helps to buoy their overall efficiency.
Dallas is also facing a Brooklyn team that struggles defensively. The Nets are just 25th in defensive rating, yielding more than 1.13 points per possession for the season. Brooklyn is also 28th in turnover creation, forcing a turnover on only 12.6 percent of defensive possessions. Dallas will have its hands full defensively, but the Mavericks are a top-10 team in field goal percentage allowed (46.0 percent) and a top-three team in the NBA at limiting assists (22.7 per game) for their opponents.
How to make Mavericks vs. Nets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 240 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Nets? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a roll on NBA picks.