LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers take on Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors on Sunday evening. Los Angeles is 23-11 this season, including a 10-7 mark in home games. Golden State, meanwhile, is 19-15 overall and 7-9 on the road in 2020-21. The Lakers have lost four of their last five games, while the Warriors are 5-2 in their last seven.
Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET in Los Angeles. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Lakers as three-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220 in the latest Warriors vs. Lakers odds. Before you make any Lakers vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model also is up almost $8,700 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 10 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 85-49 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Warriors vs. Lakers spread: Lakers -3
- Warriors vs. Lakers over-under: 220 points
- Warriors vs. Lakers money line: Lakers -150, Warriors +130
- GSW: The Warriors are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games
- LAL: The Lakers are 3-5 against the spread in the last eight games
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors are playing at a high level on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Curry leads the way with 29.9 points, 6.3 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game, putting pressure on the opposition with his shooting gravity. From there, Draymond Green is averaging 11.3 assists per game in February, and he makes others better. The Warriors are a top-10 team in shooting efficiency, and they are above-average in creating free throws.
Defensively, Golden State is No. 4 overall in the NBA, allowing only 108.5 points per 100 possessions. That includes top-five marks in shooting efficiency allowed, points in the paint allowed (44.2 per game) and turnover creation rate (15.2 percent). With the Lakers having issues in ball security (25th in the NBA in turnover rate offensively), the Warriors should be able to create havoc that could feed into their dynamic transition offense.
Why the Lakers can cover
James is operating at an MVP level, and he makes the Lakers dangerous even with Anthony Davis (calf/Achilles) out of action. James is averaging 25.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game, and he is the centerpiece of a potent team on both ends of the floor. In addition to the singular brilliance of their best player, the Lakers could take advantage of Golden State's obvious weaknesses.
The Warriors are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, grabbing only 22.2 percent of offensive rebounds (second-worst in NBA) and 72.1 percent of defensive rebounds (fifth-worst) this season. On top of that, the Lakers are capable of generating high-end efficiency at the free throw line, and the Warriors are the third-worst team in the league at preventing opponents from creating shots at the charity stripe.
How to make Lakers vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting both teams to combine for 215 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that on an 85-49 roll on NBA picks.