2018 NFL Super Bowl odds, picks, predictions: Proven computer model loving Under in Patriots vs. Eagles
Our computer model simulated Super Bowl LII 10,000 times with surprising results
Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The Patriots are 4.5-point favorites over the Eagles, down one from the opening line. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas think will be scored, stands at 48.5, up a half-point from where it opened.
With two teams vying for the Lombardi Trophy and NFL odds on the move, you need to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
With a 183-83 record, SportsLine is beating nearly every expert tracked on NFLPickWatch for the second straight season.
And after finishing the regular season on a blistering 74-22 run, it's fresh off a week in which it nailed the Eagles' upset over the Vikings and the Jaguars-Patriots Under. The model has nailed an upset in every round of the playoffs, and anyone who has followed its advice is up big.
With Super Bowl LII now set in stone, the computer simulated the game 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
We can tell you the model is loving the Under, which is hitting in over 60 percent of simulations. That's in stark contrast to the general public, who is only backing it 35 percent of the time.
The model knows Super Bowl 52 features two of the top defenses in the NFL with an Over-Under that would be one of the highest on any given week.
Philadelphia's defense, led by a dominant defensive line, has only allowed an average of 8.25 points over the last four games. And the Eagles' rush defense has been phenomenal in the 2018 NFL Playoffs, allowing a mere 78 rushing yards per game.
Overall, the Eagles were No. 1 during the regular season against the run at 79.2 yards per game and No. 4 in points allowed at 18.4.
And Philadelphia, which has given up just 33 totals points in its last four games, has not allowed more than 10 points in a game since Week 15.
Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense has also put up impressive numbers in the latter stages of the season. New England's defense has not allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 15. In the regular season, they were No. 5 in points allowed, right behind the Eagles, at 18.5 per game. If both teams stuck to their season averages, only 37 points would be scored.
Plus, Tom Brady and the Patriots have not scored an offensive point in the first quarter of the seven Super Bowls he's played in.
After simulating the 2018 Super Bowl 10,000 times, SportsLine's advanced model says you can expect 44 points to be scored, easily clearing the Under.
The model also has a strong against-the-spread pick for Eagles-Patriots that you absolutely need to see, and it says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. If you go with the model on that one, you'll be up big.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence for the 2018 Super Bowl? Check out the Super Bowl odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which side of the spread is winning well over 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that nailed an upset in every round of the playoffs, plus get NFL picks from 20 experts.
Super Bowl 52: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-4.5, 48.5)
Pick Six Newsletter
Get the day's big stories + fun stuff you love like mock drafts, picks and power rankings.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox for the latest sports news.
There was an error processing your subscription.
Brady says he hopes the next owner will take good care of the car
The former Seahawks pass rusher isn't jumping at many deals this offseason
The 2019 standout is entering the final year of his rookie deal
Jason La Canfora revisits his annual tiers and reveals his new quarterback rankings
And Chad Johnson was defending them!
DeMaurice Smith isn't so sure that we're going to see the NFL in 2020
Here's the perfect way to keep track of all your schedule leaks and updates in one place
CBS Sports is bringing you live updates and analysis as the 2020 NFL Draft wraps up on Saturday
Live scores, highlights and updates from the Jaguars vs. Colts football game