Bears vs. Rams player props, Week 1 picks: Matthew Stafford goes under 273.5 passing yards

After a dozen years of gaudy stats but little success to show for it, quarterback Matthew Stafford was traded to the Los Angeles Rams in the offseason. Stafford will make his team debut on Sunday Night Football as his Rams host the Chicago Bears at 8:20 p.m. ET. Stafford, who already has a 5,000-yard passing season under his belt, is a part of plenty of NFL prop bets available at Caesars Sportsbook. Which Rams vs. Bears props should you back as you place your NFL bets?

Stafford's over-under for total passing yards is 273.5 for Sunday's Bears vs. Rams matchup, while Caesars also lists the over-under for Allen Robinson total receptions at 5.5. There are dozens of Rams vs. Bears prop picks available on both sides of the first Sunday night game of the season. Before locking in any NFL prop bets for Bears vs. Rams, you need to see the Rams vs. Bears prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

With Bears vs. Rams squaring off Sunday, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from Caesars and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

Top NFL player prop bets for Rams vs. Bears

After simulating Bears vs. Rams 10,000 times and examining the dozens of player props, the model says Stafford goes under 273.5 passing yards (-115), predicting that he falls seven yards short on average. Stafford averaged 255.3 passing yards per game last year with the Lions after putting up 312.4 the year before. From playing in the NFC North, Stafford is well acquainted with the Bears and he averaged 349.5 passing yards per game in two contests versus Chicago last year.

However, Stafford is no longer playing for a Lions team that was forced to throw so often since they often trailed in games. He is in a much more balanced offense and the Rams are dedicated to establishing the run, unlike Detroit. Last season, the Rams ranked seventh in rushing attempts while Detroit ranked 30th, so the opportunities just won't be there for Stafford to accumulate lots of passing yards.

The model also says Bears running back David Montgomery goes under 54.5 total rushing yards (-115), predicting that he finishes with 48. After a solid rookie year in 2019, Montgomery broke out in 2020 with 1,070 rushing yards, eight touchdowns and a 4.3 rushing average. He was especially productive in the second half of the season as Montgomery averaged 99.7 rushing yards over his last six games.

However, none of those six games came against the Rams' and their No. 1 total defense. Los Angeles allowed the fewest total yards and the third-fewest rushing yards last year behind the play of three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Montgomery did get a shot at the Rams defense in Week 7 of last year and could only muster 48 yards on 14 rushing attempts. That was actually an improvement over his first meeting with the Rams in 2019 when Montgomery only put up 31 yards on 2.2 yards per carry.