The Buffalo Bills, under general manager Doug Whaley, really can't help themselves. The allure of a boom-or-bust proposition is often too great for them to ignore, and the shiny thing in the corner, catching their eye these days, is a quarterback. Specifically, Ohio State project Cardale Jones.
Yes, even with the residue of the failed experiment to grossly over-draft EJ Manuel still lingering, and with them not too far removed mortgaging a draft to move up a few spots to take Sammie Watkins in a receiver-rich draft, and about a year removed from trading for Shady McCoy -- adding millions to what was already a hefty contract -- it seems unlikely the Bills will go quietly this April.
For as much double-talk as you hear coming from that building about current starter Tyrod Taylor, the reality is, as reported back at the combine, that he was never on their list as part of this year's spending splurge and they want to continue to rent him. They are plenty content to have him come to camp for peanuts, still unsure if he is the guy given his slight frame, the kind of abuse he takes playing the position so athletically. He flashed well and had a winning record for a suspect team a year ago, but they have their reservations.
Thus, all the work they are spending on quarterbacks. And at this point, I'd be pretty shocked if they don't take a quarterback on the second day of the draft given all I have heard about their pursuits. Jones fits their profile best -- it would be a splash move, he has amazing physical prowess yet is exceedingly raw, and I continue to hear that their interest in him is quite strong. The other college quarterbacks I hear the most about in conjunction to the Bills are Christian Hackenberg of Penn State (the Bills owners, the Pegulas, are huge PSU boosters) and Kevin Hogan from Stanford.
Sure, the roster has plenty of other needs. And yes, Whaley and head coach Rex Ryan, despite having years left on their contracts, are well aware that this is likely to be a make-or-break year from them, but they seem intent on going quarterback again, and none of this trio is plug-and-play.
Anything but.
Perhaps they could push Taylor somewhat, but none of them is anything close to a short-term upgrade at quarterback and I doubt they prove to be a mid-term upgrade either. But the buzz I hear about Jones in particular makes me think he could very well be their guy.
Certainly, it is easy to fall in love with this kid's physical prowess, his attributes are off the charts. We're talking a 6-foot-6, 250-pound kid who can past people or through people and can throw the football through a brick wall. But he's also a prospect who, playing with the best talent in all of college football, stagnated and regressed in some ways in his final season at Ohio State, who continued to make the same mistakes and who is very, very raw. Fact is, he looked like a better pro a year ago then he does this year.
Saying all of that, he has too much upside -- as long as it may take him to get there -- to get past the third round and I continue to get the sense that he'll be gone come Friday a few weeks from now, on Day 2 of the draft. And, the best case for him would be to land somewhere like New Orleans, San Diego, Baltimore or Green Bay, where he could learn behind a true pro and receive elite coaching for a few years and not face the immediate pressure of trying to win a job. He'd also avoid all of the scrutiny of a Day 1 quarterback competition and find himself in a secure, relatively stable, spot. Of course, he can't control where he's drafted, and there is a good chance some desperate, quarterback-needy team will leap at him.
And this is where I would advance my buyer beware advice, particularly to those kind of teams.
"The kid had an unbelievable workout," said a top executive for a team that has done extensive work on quarterbacks, but would not take one until the later rounds (and thus has no dog in this fight). "His pro day was amazing. But it's just that -- a pro day, a workout. He's a project. He needs time. If he goes to a team where there is an expectation that he could play sooner rather than later it could easily blow up on them all."
And the Bills have come close to having their building blow up each of the first two off-seasons under new owner Terry Pegula. And they have yet to show any real signs of growth of improvement.
There was no shortage of discontentment throughout the disjointed 2015 campaign. It will only be so long before this ownership group acts again, and this is a massive year for everyone in that building. Sources said Pegula has traveled to spend time with players like Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes, who were part of a defense that fell way short of hopes under Ryan a year ago, to make sure they are getting all the support and everything they need to thrive, to impress upon them the import of the upcoming campaign.
Getting as many capable starters as possible out of this draft, given how hamstrung the Bills were by the salary cap to sign outside free agents, is a must. Finding a quarterback better than Taylor, for now or the next few years, is going to be exceeding difficult, especially on the second day of the draft (rounds 2-3), but it's clear the misfire on Manuel hasn't curbed their enthusiasm to perhaps go down that road again.
Would Fitzpatrick consider following in Ferguson's steps?
The Jets were not going to get anything for aging left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, he wasn't inclined to take a pay cut, and in the end him retiring is probably the best solution to their quandary at left tackle. The only concern I'd have if I were them is, would quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick possibly do the same thing and retire?
I have heard nothing to believe that Fitzpatrick would consider that, only the occasional hypothesis that, with him having no leverage, and the Jets offering a deal he considers to be well below market value (even though New York is literally the only team in the market for him), his only real leverage might come via the retirement option. Because the Jets would be left without a quarterback, still, and Fitzpatrick has plenty of time on his hands between now and the season opener, anyway.
Might be an interesting ploy for Fitzpatrick to consider, regardless, and especially on the heels of Ferguson reportedly hanging up his cleats.
The simple solution, as I've espoused here on a few occasions, should be for the Jets to simply up the offer to $10 million per year, even if it means bidding against themselves. Make an exception given the importance of the quarterback position and how beloved he is in that locker room, and if the veteran still stays away, then so be it. But I would offer a bump of a few million a year in good faith before the draft to try to get him back in the fold. Several other execs I spoke to from other teams suggested that approach might be in order as well.
As for Ferguson, I spoke to evaluators for teams who have a need at left tackle and who did work on the veteran waiting for him to get cut. The reviews were not favorable.
"He was pretty awful last year," one exec said. "They should just cut him. They won't get anything for him."
The Jets clearly have to know this as well, hence their visits with left tackles early in free agency (signing a Kelvin Bechum might have made sense in hindsight). Add in the fact that New York had only $564,000 in cap space entering the day Friday and the Jets' hands were pretty tied here.
There was no way the Jets were going to pay Ferguson upward of $9 million for next season at this rate, and with Ferguson departing, they receive about $9 million in cap space they badly need. One would think this also puts them firmly in the market for a tackle in the first round as well, although they could hop on someone like Ryan Clady once the Broncos do what many believe is inevitable and release him for similar reasons to what the Jets faced with Ferguson.
