The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills meet with the AFC East title in the balance on Sunday Night Football. Each team can win the division with a victory, and the Dolphins are also seeking revenge after a Week 4 loss in Buffalo. Miami is 11-5 overall this season, and the Dolphins are 7-1 at home. Buffalo is 10-6 overall, including four straight victories, and the Bills are 10-1 in the last 11 games against the Dolphins, including playoffs.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Miami. The Bills are three-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48 in the latest Bills vs. Dolphins odds. Before you make any Dolphins vs. Bills picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Dolphins and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Dolphins vs. Bills:
- Bills vs. Dolphins spread: Bills -3
- Bills vs. Dolphins over/under: 48 points
- Bills vs. Dolphins money line: Bills -156, Dolphins +132
- BUF: Bills are 2-5 against the spread in road games
- MIA: Dolphins are 6-2 against the spread in home games
- Bills vs. Dolphins picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Bills vs. Dolphins live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Bills can cover
The Bills are No. 6 in the NFL in scoring, averaging 26.9 points per game, and average 2.41 points per possession while scoring points on 42.4% of drives. Buffalo is also in the top five in total yards (368.3 per game) and yards per play (5.7) and leads the NFL in converting 49.0% of third down opportunities. The Bills are in the top four in red zone efficiency (65.0%) and first downs (355), with top-10 marks in passing yards (238.1 per game) and rushing yards (130.3 per game).
Buffalo is also in the top 10 in passing touchdowns (27), yards per pass attempt (7.3), yards per rush attempt (4.4), and rushing touchdowns (22). Josh Allen is key to that success, and the talented quarterback has dominated Miami in his career. Allen has averaged 328.9 total yards and more than three touchdowns per game in 12 meetings against the Dolphins and leads the NFL with 42 total touchdowns this season. Allen is the first player in NFL history to reach 40 total touchdowns in four straight seasons and set an NFL record with at least one rushing touchdown and passing touchdown in 11 games this year. See which team to pick here.
Why the Dolphins can cover
Miami's defense is coming off a brutal performance in Week 17, but the Dolphins have strong underlying numbers on that side of the ball. The Dolphins rank in the top 10 of the NFL in total yards allowed (308.6 per game), first downs allowed (295), rushing yards allowed (95.1 per game), yards per carry allowed (3.8), and sacks (53) this season. Miami is also facing a Buffalo offense that has flaws, including 25 giveaways and 16 interceptions.
The Dolphins are also comfortable at home, posting a 7-1 record and outscoring opponents by 16.9 points per game in Miami. In contrast, Buffalo is just 3-5 away from its home stadium this season, and Miami still has a highly potent offense to rely on in any matchup. The Dolphins lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 30.1 points per game and 2.58 points per offensive possession. Miami is also in the top five in both passing and rushing, putting up 409.2 total yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. The Dolphins often lean on a dynamic passing attack, but Miami is averaging a league-best 5.0 yards per carry on the ground with an NFL-high 26 rushing touchdowns. See which team to pick here.
How to make Bills vs. Dolphins picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, with both teams projected to throw for 249 yards or more. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Dolphins vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Bills spread to back, all from the model on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
