The 2019 season hasn't gone as planned for the Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) and Denver Broncos (3-8), but the two AFC West rivals will go head-to-head on Saturday for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff from Mile High Stadium. The Chargers have lost their last two games to fall out of the AFC playoff picture, while the Broncos have lost four of five. However, the Broncos have covered the spread in three of their last four games and are now 6-5 against the number this season. Denver will reportedly start rookie quarterback Drew Lock in place of Brandon Allen. Los Angeles is up to a 3.5-point favorite after the line opened at one, while the total is 38 in the latest Chargers vs. Broncos odds. Before you make your Week 13 NFL predictions, see the Broncos vs. Chargers picks from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model has also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Broncos vs. Chargers 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The Broncos' pass defense is one of the best in the NFL and should give Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers headaches. The Broncos rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense and haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Dec. 9 of last season.

Meanwhile, Rivers has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games, while the Chargers' offensive line has given up seven sacks. After a slow start to the season, Broncos linebacker Von Miller has recorded 3.5 sacks and six tackles for loss in his last four games, so look for the veteran edge rusher to get after Rivers on Sunday. He's officially listed as questionable with a knee injury, but reports say he's likely to suit up.

Los Angeles came up short against Kansas City two weeks ago, falling 24-17. Rivers threw four interceptions and now has seven picks in the Chargers' last two games, giving him 14 this season, second most in the NFL. In the first meeting between the teams in Week 5, Rivers threw for 211 yards and two interceptions in a 20-13 defeat. 

Denver enters the AFC West contest with only 19 touchdowns allowed, good for fourth best in the NFL. As for the Chargers, they come into the game boasting the fourth fewest passing yards allowed per game in the league at 219.7. 

So who wins Chargers vs. Broncos? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Broncos vs. Chargers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that has crushed its NFL picks.