Chiefs vs. 49ers odds, spread: 2020 Super Bowl picks, optimal predictions from model on 96-65 run
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Super Bowl 54 between the 49ers and Chiefs 10,000 times.
The San Francisco 49ers will try to notch a third straight double-digit victory this postseason when they face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in the 2020 Super Bowl. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. San Francisco (15-3) posted a pair of 17-point wins en route to the Niners' seventh Super Bowl appearance in franchise history, defeating Minnesota in the Divisional Round before knocking off Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game.
Kansas City (14-4) also has been dominant, winning its last five games by at least 10 points, including victories over Houston in the Divisional Round (51-31) and Tennessee in the AFC Championship Game (35-24). Kansas City is favored by 1.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. 49ers odds, while the over-under is 54 after opening at 52.5 and climbing as high as 54.5. Before locking in any 49ers vs. Chiefs picks or 2020 Super Bowl predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine's proven projection model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four-plus years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering the 2020 Super Bowl on a strong 34-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 96-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Chiefs vs. 49ers spread: Kansas City -1.5
- Chiefs vs. 49ers over-under: 54 points
- Chiefs vs. 49ers money line: Kansas City -120, San Francisco +100
- KC: Chiefs are averaging 43 points in the 2020 NFL Playoffs
- SF: 49ers haven't allowed a running play of more than 11 yards in the postseason
Why the Chiefs can cover
The model knows that while Patrick Mahomes dictates the Chiefs' offense, Damien Williams has become a dangerous playoff performer. The 27-year-old running back has rushed for three touchdowns this postseason after scoring on the ground only five times in 11 regular-season contests. He has recorded eight scores (three receiving) in four playoff games with Kansas City.
Williams (92 yards) ranks second on the team in rushing this postseason behind Mahomes, who gained 53 yards in both of Kansas City's playoff contests. The third-year quarterback, who is 27-8 as a starter, joined Otto Graham (1950), Steve McNair (1999) and Russell Wilson (2012) as the only signal-callers in NFL history to run for at least 50 yards in back-to-back postseason games.
Why the 49ers can cover
San Francisco's quest for a sixth Super Bowl victory could rest on the foot of kicker Robbie Gould, who is one of eight players on the roster to have previously gone to the big game. The 37-year-old kicker from Penn State was not overwhelmed by the moment in Super Bowl XLI, as he converted both of his extra-point attempts and his lone field-goal try (44 yards) in Chicago's 29-17 loss to Indianapolis.
Gould has been perfect this postseason, making all five of his field goals, including a 54-yarder against Green Bay, while going a perfect 7-for-7 on extra points. The 49ers should have supreme confidence in the veteran if the game comes down to one kick on Sunday since he has yet to miss in nine career playoff games, nailing 13 field-goal attempts and 27 extra points.
How to make Chiefs vs. 49ers picks
We can tell you that the model is leaning under. In fact, it says Mahomes fails to top 250 yards passing, while Jimmy Garoppolo has the same chance of throwing a touchdown as an interception. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get that pick here.
So who wins 49ers vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. 49ers spread to be all over, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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