The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills both have goals of winning their divisions and earning home-field advantage in the AFC, but after disheartening losses last week, they'll go head-to-head on Monday. Both teams are 4-1 overall and 3-2 against the spread, and a win would provide a valuable tiebreaker. The game is scheduled to kickoff at 5 p.m. ET after it was moved from Thursday to Monday in an effort to give Buffalo a rest after playing a rescheduled game against the Titans.

Buffalo is coming off a 42-16 loss to the Titans and must get their defensive issues ironed out quickly against a Chiefs offense that still managed 413 yards and 32 points in a loss to Las Vegas last week. Kansas City is a 5.5-point road favorite, while the over-under is 55.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from William Hill, up a half-point from the opener. Before locking in any Bills vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 10-5 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model entered Week 6 on an incredible 106-70 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Bills. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -5.5
  • Chiefs vs. Bills over-under: 55.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Kansas City -240, Buffalo +200
  • BUF: Bills are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games versus the AFC West
  • KC: Chiefs are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games

Why the Bills can cover

The Bills are 5-2 in their last seven games following a straight up loss. Josh Allen has transformed into one of the best passers in the game early in 2020. He is only one of three NFL quarterbacks with two or more TD passes in every game, and he has also rushed for three scores while throwing only three interceptions.

The offseason addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been highly impactful. Diggs led the team with 10 catches for 106 yards in Week 5 and was second in the NFL with 509 receiving yards entering Week 6. Buffalo also may get rookie Zack Moss back from a toe injury this week, restoring their dual running back approach. Starting running back Devin Singletary has 75-plus scrimmage yards in three of his past games.

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs are coming off a disappointing 40-32 loss against the Raiders at home as 10.5-point favorites that snapped a 13-game winning streak. The Raiders did an admirable job of keeping Mahomes off the field with over 35 minutes in possession, but the Chiefs still managed 413 yards of total offense and 32 points. Mahomes threw for 340 yards and throwing two touchdowns with a rushing score. 

While the Bills' defense ranked in the top three in points allowed and yards allowed in 2019, Buffalo hasn't been nearly as frightening on that side of the ball in 2020.

The Bills really missed Tre'Davious White (back) last week, and he's listed as questionable for Monday. Even if he's in the lineup, Mahomes and the Chiefs will likely test him early to check his mobility against arguably the fastest receiving corps in football.

How to make Chiefs vs. Bills picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under the total. In fact, it's calling for 52 total points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills on Monday? And which side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,500 on its NFL picks, and find out.