The Miami Dolphins are on a roll, but they need to keep winning to make the NFL playoff bracket. The Las Vegas Raiders stand in their way when the teams meet on Saturday night. The Dolphins (9-5) have won eight of their last 10 games behind a defense that has a knack for big plays. Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been limiting mistakes and will face a Raiders defense that allows more than 30 points per game. Las Vegas (7-7) has almost no chance at the NFL playoff picture after losing four of its last five.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium. William Hill Sportsbook lists Miami as a 2.5-point favorite in its latest Dolphins vs. Raiders odds, while the over-under is 49.5. Before locking in any Raiders vs. Dolphins picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 22-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 16 on an incredible 118-76 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Raiders. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL betting odds from William Hill and the latest trends for Raiders vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Raiders spread: Miami -2.5
- Dolphins vs. Raiders over-under: 49.5
- Dolphins vs. Raiders money line: Miami -145, Las Vegas +125
- MIA: LB Jerome Baker has 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble in the past two games
- LV: WR Nelson Agholor has 24 receptions for 329 yards over the past five games
Why the Dolphins can cover
Miami has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games, and the Dolphins lead the NFL in takeaways and scoring defense. Xavien Howard has a league-high nine interceptions, while former Pro Bowler Byron Jones plays opposite him.
Road teams on short rest are 20-9-1 against the spread this season, and Raiders quarterback Derek Carr will face pressure from end Emmanuel Ogbah (nine sacks) and linebackers Jerome Baker (six) and Kyle Van Noy (six).
The Raiders are allowing 36 points per game over their last five, and Miami should get several weapons back this week. Running back Myles Gaskin (726 total yards in eight games), receiver DeVante Parker (677 yards) and tight end Mike Gesicki (602) all are close to returning.
Why the Raiders can cover
Las Vegas is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games in Week 16 and the Dolphins will be playing their first road game since Week 12. Raiders games are averaging 57 points, the highest total in the league, and the home team is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these clubs.
Darren Waller is a unique talent for the Raiders, as the 6-foot-6 tight end is sixth in the league with 93 catches for 967 yards and eight touchdowns. The defense has been beset by injuries, but linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski (team-high 81 tackles) and end Maxx Crosby (six sacks) can still make an impact.
How to make Dolphins vs. Raiders picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with the model calling for 54 total points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Raiders vs. Dolphins on Saturday? And which side of the spread cashes more than half the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Raiders vs. Dolphins spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,900 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
