tua-tagovailoa-dolphins-getty-images.jpg
Getty Images

Two teams jockeying for playoff positioning will face off on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 16. The New Orleans Saints will host the Miami Dolphins in a cross-conference battle with sky-high stakes. The Saints are 7-7 after two consecutive victories, though New Orleans is just 2-4 at the Caesars Superdome this season. The Dolphins are also 7-7 following a six-game winning streak that made up for a dismal start to the 2021 campaign.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in New Orleans. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Dolphins as three-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 37.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Saints odds. Before you make any Saints vs. Dolphins picks and NFL predictions, be sure to check out what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 16 of the 2021 season on an incredible 133-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Saints, and just locked in its Monday Night Football picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Saints:

  • Dolphins vs. Saints spread: Dolphins -3 
  • Dolphins vs. Saints over-under: 37.5 points 
  • Dolphins vs. Saints money line: Saints +145, Dolphins -170
  • MIA: Dolphins are 7-7 against the spread in 2021 
  • NO: Saints are 7-6-1 against the spread this season
Featured Game | New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in completion rate, connecting on 69.9 percent of passes, and is No. 3 in the league in sack rate at just 4.13 percent. In the last seven games, Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,730 yards with 11 touchdown passes and just five interceptions, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is benefitting from his quarterback's stellar play.

Waddle, who will likely return from the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday Night Football, leads all rookies with 86 receptions this season, and has a whopping 59 catches in the last eight games. In that sample, Waddle has more than 600 receiving yards and, when paired with Tagovailoa, is on pace for well over 1,000 yards per 16 games.

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans is suffocating on defense, and that was evident last week. The Saints shut out the high-powered Tampa Bay Buccaneers, blanking Tom Brady in front of a national television audience. That wasn't a fluke, either, as the Saints are allowing only 20.4 points per game, an elite figure. New Orleans is above average in total defense (336.9 yards allowed per game) and pass defense (240.2 yards allowed per game), and the Saints are in the top five in interceptions (15), touchdown passes allowed (18) and passer rating allowed (82.5).

New Orleans is even better against the run, allowing only 96.6 yards per game, and opponents are averaging only 3.8 yards per carry against New Orleans. The Saints are allowing opponents to convert only 37.3 percent of third down chances, ranking in the top 10 of the NFL, and New Orleans is a top-five team in fourth down defense at 38.9 percent.

How to make Dolphins vs. Saints picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 35 points scored. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Saints vs. Dolphins pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Saints vs. Dolphins on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Saints vs. Dolphins spread you need to jump on, all from the model that's 133-96 on NFL picks, and find out.