We are halfway through the 2022 NFL regular season, and the Philadelphia Eagles have yet to lose a game. This week, they put their perfect 8-0 record on the line against the rival Washington Commanders. Philly defeated Washington in Week 3 earlier this season, but this is not the same Commanders team. Ever since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback, Washington is 2-1.
There's seemingly always some weird magic at work when Heinicke is under center. The former Old Dominion star is 8-2-1 against the spread in his past 11 starts, and the last five Commanders games have each been decided by five or fewer points. Vegas isn't afraid, however, as sportsbooks are expecting Jalen Hurts to blow past their rivals once again.
Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Monday night's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 14 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Eagles -11, O/U 43.5
Line movement
This line reopened at PHI -10 on Tuesday, Nov. 1. It rose to PHI -10.5 the next day, then PHI -11 this past Monday, where it has remained.
The pick: Commanders +11. This game was not one of my top-fiive best bets of the week, but my lean is to the Commanders. I don't know how live they are to win this game, although I do think division opponents have a better shot to take down the Eagles due to their familiarity with Nick Sirianni and the team in general. But 11 points is a lot to lay. I thought the Eagles could easily cover 13.5 points against the Houston Texans on "Thursday Night Football" last week, but that of course did not happen. I understand that Philly is at home this week with extended rest, but Washington is better than Houston. This game feels like one where we could see a back-door cover -- one way or the other.
Our panel of eight CBS Sports NFL experts are divided on this game, with four taking WAS +11 and the other four taking PHI -11.
Over/Under total
The total reopened at 45 on Tuesday, Nov. 1. It fell to 44.5 this past Monday, 44 on Tuesday and now 43.5.
The pick: Over 43.5. I actually like the Over in this matchup. Washington is 3-6 to the Over this season, but Philadelphia is 5-3 to the Over. There are plenty of statistics that support the Eagles hitting the Over on Monday night. Philly has hit the Over every time this season when the total was under 45 points, was 42.5 to 45.5 points, vs. teams averaging fewer than 21 points per game, vs. teams allowing 21 to 25 points per game, and when the Eagles have more than eight days off. If you were curious, the Eagles average 28.1 points per game, while the Commanders average 17.7 points per game.
Taylor Heinicke props
Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -264, Under +184)
Passing yards: 214.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing attempts: OFF
Passing completions: OFF
Longest passing completion: 33.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -214, Under +152)
Rushing yards: 17.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
The passing touchdowns prop is ridiculous to me. Heinicke has thrown five touchdowns in three starts this season. I say he's going to throw one Monday night, but I'm not sure I've ever bet a -264 line. Throw the Over into a same-game parlay. I'll lean Over on passing yards. He's crossed this number just once in three starts this season, but if I have Washington losing, he should cross it since the Commanders will need to pass the ball. Other than that, I'll stay away from the rest of Heinicke's props. I don't have a read on longest passing completion or rushing yards. He will probably throw an interception, but I'm not betting -214 juice and I'm not confident enough to throw it into a same-game parlay. That said, Heinicke has thrown a pick in all three of his starts.
Jalen Hurts props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing yards: 242.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
Passing completions: 19.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +116, Under -160)
Rushing yards: 40.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
I love the Over on Hurts' passing touchdowns number. I feel like this line is wrong, as he's thrown at least two touchdowns in the past three contests. I lean to his Over on passing yards, but will stay away from passing completions and attempts. Hurts hasn't thrown an interception since Oct. 2, but at plus money, I may take a flier on the Over for fun. I will also stay away from his rushing yards number. If you've watched Hurts recently, he hasn't cleared 40 rushing yards since Oct. 9. I'm not saying the Under hits; I'm simply saying I wouldn't bet it.
Player props
Jake Elliott made extra points: Over 2.5 (-101). "Will the Eagles score three touchdowns in situations where they don't have to go for two?" That's this prop in my eyes. As long as Elliott doesn't miss an extra point, of course. He's hit this prop in each of the past two games.
Quez Watkins receiving yards: Over 12.5 (-115). I'm going to tell you a secret. Quez Watkins is a pretty decent receiver. If I was an NFL general manager, I would have traded for him over a year ago. Now, this prop isn't some guarantee. His props are always boom or bust, but he's a home-run hitter who could clear this on one catch.
