Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
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The Cleveland Browns had little trouble scoring in the first four road games of the 2021 NFL season, producing 29 or more points three times and eclipsing 40 on two occasions. They haven't had much success getting on the board lately, however, recording a total of 17 points in their last two contests away from home. Cleveland (7-7) will try to get going offensively on Saturday when it visits the NFC North champion Green Bay Packers (11-3) for a 2021 NFL Christmas Day contest.

Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Green Bay is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Packers vs. Browns odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 46.5. Before locking in any Browns vs. Packers picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 16 of the 2021 season on an incredible 133-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Packers vs. Browns on Saturday. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook and trends for Browns vs. Packers:

  • Packers vs. Browns spread: Green Bay -7.5
  • Packers vs. Browns over-under: 46.5 points
  • Packers vs. Browns money line: Green Bay -350, Cleveland +280
  • GB: Packers are 11-2 against the spread in their last 13 games
  • CLE: Browns are 1-4 against the spread in their last five meetings with Green Bay

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay has been scoring at a high rate, producing 31 or more points in its last four games. Reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers has thrown 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions in that span. The 38-year-old needs one TD toss to break a tie with Brett Favre (442) for most in franchise history, and with 30 on the season, he is the fifth quarterback in NFL history to reach the plateau at least eight times in his career.

Davante Adams is third in the league with 1,248 receiving yards and needs 139 to set a new career-high, while running back Aaron Jones leads the team with 10 total TDs (four rushing, six receiving). The Packers have been strong on the other side of the ball as well, as they rank eighth in total defense (325.8 yards) and are ninth against the pass (217.9). The club is tied for second in turnover differential at plus-12 and has had the fewest giveaways in the NFL with 10. 

Why the Browns can cover

Cleveland has done well to avoid losing streaks since Kevin Stefanski took over as head coach prior to the 2020 season. The club did not suffer back-to-back defeats last year and is 10-1 following a loss under the reigning NFL Coach of the Year. It is the second-best mark in the league under one coach in such situations since 2000, behind only Green Bay (9-0 under Matt LaFleur).

The Browns have struggled offensively over their last five games, averaging the third-fewest number of points in that span (13.6), but have been strong on the other side of the ball all year. Cleveland has the fifth-ranked defense in the NFL (321.7 yards), is eighth against the pass (216.1) and ranks ninth versus the run (105.6). The team is sixth in sacks (37) thanks in large part to Myles Garrett, who is questionable with a groin injury but has set the franchise single-season record and is tied for third in the league with 15.

How to make Packers vs. Browns picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 44 points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Browns vs. Packers on Saturday? And which side of the spread cashes more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Browns vs. Packers spread to be all over on Saturday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.