You know that gluttonous feeling you have after eating Thanksgiving dinner, so full and happy?
It's the opposite of where I am with my picks.
Starving for winners.
After a little bit of a surge in Week 10 and Week 11, the picks went off the rails in a bad way last week. I went 9-5 straight up, which isn't awful, but I went 4-10 against the spread, puking all over my shoes.
That won't happen again. I promise. Now that the card is back to a full 16-game slate, I feel much more comfortable with it. So as we head to the Thanksgiving Day games, it's time to turn this thing around and get full with winners.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
This is a turkey on Thanksgiving, one featuring two teams going nowhere. The Bears showed some life last week, especially on offense. The Lions are a mess. But give me the Lions at home on Turkey Day to pull off the upset.
Pick: Lions 21, Bears 20
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Buffalo Bills (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
This is a big game for both teams, a proving game of sorts. The Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record, while the Bills have beaten just one. The Cowboys were awful on offense last week, but they have a big edge here being at home. Even so, I think the Bills show up big on defense and the Cowboys have to be wondering about their coach.
Pick: Bills 20, Cowboys 19
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Atlanta Falcons
These two don't like each other, but it's the Saints who are still playing for something. The Falcons are done. But two weeks ago, they found a way to beat the Saints in New Orleans behind a heck of a defensive effort. That won't happen in this one. The Saints will beat down their rivals.
Pick: Saints 30, Falcons 20
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
This is the game of the week. Can the 49ers and their top defense slow down Lamar Jackson and his MVP quest? I don't think they can. Jackson will continue to roll up big numbers, but it's the Ravens defense that is getting better and better. That will be the difference.
Pick: Ravens 26, 49ers 16
Washington Redskins (+10) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers lost a tough one last week, but Kyle Allen impressed. That's a good sign. The Redskins beat the Lions, but this is a step up in competition for Dwayne Haskins. That shows up. The Panthers will win it.
Pick: Panthers 27, Redskins 20
New York Jets (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Jets have come alive, winning three straight. The Bengals are a mess, but they are going back to Andy Dalton, which should help the offense. Even so, I think the Jets will find a way behind Sam Darnold to make it four in a row.
Pick: Jets 23, Bengals 16
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is an enormous game in terms of playoff implications. The Titans are playing much better with Ryan Tannehill under center, but they are a run-first team. That could present problems for the Colts. The Colts will also try and run it here, but I think the Titans will be up to the challenge. Tannehill will make enough plays to pull off the upset.
Pick: Titans 19, Colts 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been blown out in three straight games, and they can't stop the run. But the Bucs don't usually lean on the run. I expect this to be a high-scoring game with Jameis Winston having a big day throwing it for Tampa Bay, and the Jaguars getting their offense going. Winston will get the better of it.
Pick: Bucs 31, Jaguars 29
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
The Raiders are playing consecutive road games and are coming off a terrible showing against the Jets on the road. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, which gives them a big edge. Plus, they are the better team. Look for Patrick Mahomes to light up the Raiders.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Raiders 19
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Miami Dolphins
The Eagles are a game behind the Cowboys in the division, but the schedule gets softer, starting here. The Dolphins are a mess and even a banged-up Eagles team will be able to find a way in the Florida sun. Eagles get back on track as Carson Wentz rebounds.
Pick: Eagles 27, Dolphins 17
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants
The Packers are coming off a horrible showing against the 49ers. The offense was awful. But the Giants are the perfect tonic. Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to look like the Rodgers we expect to see. The Packers roll.
Pick: Packers 33, Giants 20
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
The Rams playoff hopes basically disappeared on Monday night in their loss to the Ravens. They looked awful. It will be tough to rebound after that, which is why I think the Cardinals, who are coming off a bye, will win this behind a good day from Kyler Murray.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Rams 27
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
The Chargers are coming off their bye and their season is all but done. The question now is whether Philip Rivers is as well. The Broncos have offensive issues that show up weekly. They will hear as the Chargers pass rushers get all over Brandon Allen. Rivers bounces back here too.
Pick: Chargers 23, Broncos 17
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2)
They met two weeks ago in the game that ended with the helmet-hitting incident involving Myles Garrett. He is suspended for the rest of the season, but Mason Rudolph, the player he hit, won't be playing here. The Steelers will turn to Devlin Hodges at quarterback. The Browns are surging, but I think the Steelers defense will impose its will on the Browns. Pittsburgh will win a tough, nasty game.
Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 13
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Houston Texans
The Patriots are struggling on offense, but you would think they would get it going at some point. Is this the game? I think it is to some degree. The highlight here, though, will be Deshaun Watson against that New England defense, which has been outstanding. Look for the Pats to slow Watson and win a tough road game.
Pick: Pats 23, Texans 14
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
This is Kirk Cousins on the road in a big game. That hasn't been a good thing for him, but he's played well this season. Russell Wilson is in the MVP conversation, and he should have a good day against a Minnesota defense that has struggled at times. The Seattle defense has made strides in recent weeks, which will cause problems for Cousins.
Pick: Seattle 28, Vikings 21