It's all about motivation in Sunday's NFL regular-season finale between AFC North rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh has plenty of it, needing a victory and help to avoid missing the playoffs for a second year in a row. Baltimore has little-to-no motivation other than perhaps assuring its rival misses the postseason since the Ravens already have clinched the division title and the top seed in the AFC playoff bracket. Kickoff is 4:25 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Field in Baltimore.

Pittsburgh is a two-point favorite in the latest Steelers vs. Ravens odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 37, down three points from the opening line. The road team has covered five of the past six in the series. Before making any Steelers vs. Ravens picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four-plus years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 17 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 33-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 95-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Steelers vs. Ravens. We can tell you it's leaning over the total, and it also has generated a strong against the spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. Go to SportsLine now to see it. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Steelers vs. Ravens:

  • Steelers vs. Ravens spread: Pittsburgh -2
  • Steelers vs. Ravens over-under: 37 points
  • Steelers vs. Ravens moneyline: Pittsburgh -125, Baltimore +105
  • PIT: Steelers have won 22 of past 29 December games
  • BAL: Ravens are 9-1 in past 10 December home games

The model knows the Steelers likely wouldn't be favored in this game, but Ravens coach John Harbaugh already has said he will be resting many of his key players, led by quarterback and likely league MVP Lamar Jackson. Top running back Mark Ingram also will sit, although he's dealing with a calf injury. Jackson set an NFL single-season quarterback record with 1,206 rushing yards this season, while Ingram had 1,018. The Ravens are the seventh team in NFL history and first since 2009 to have two players with at least 1,000 yards rushing.

As it is, Pittsburgh has been stellar against AFC North opponents, winning 17 of the past 21. The Steelers nearly beat the Ravens in Week 5, losing 26-23 in overtime. It took a Justin Tucker 48-yard field goal with 10 seconds in regulation to send the game into OT, and Tucker won it on a 46-yard field goal with 5:26 left. The Steelers have covered seven of their past 11 games in Week 17.

But just because Pittsburgh is a road favorite doesn't mean it will cover the Steelers vs. Ravens spread on Sunday.

While Baltimore has nothing to play for, the players who will take the field are professionals with pride. Replacing Jackson as the starting quarterback will be Robert Griffin III, the former Heisman Trophy winner and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. In addition, the Steelers could be scoreboard-watching. If the Titans are up big early in the game in Houston, it likely takes all the motivation away from Pittsburgh, which has won just three of its past 10 road games.

During their franchise-record 11-game winning streak, the Ravens are beating teams by nearly 18 points per game. They are also 8-1 against the spread in their past nine. In addition, Baltimore's defense surely will feel confident facing Steelers rookie quarterback Devlin Hodges, an undrafted free agent who has thrown a combined six interceptions in his past two games, both losses.

So who wins Steelers vs. Ravens? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Ravens vs. Steelers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 95-65 run on NFL picks.