I spent a good 20 minutes sitting at my laptop thinking of something brilliant or profound to say about Super Bowl LV on Sunday and couldn't. I mean, what else needs to be said at this point? It's as fantastic a matchup as any neutral observer can hope for.
On one side, you have the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady, and on the other, you have the reigning champions, who are led by the kid who could prove to be the greatest of all time one day in Patrick Mahomes.
Oh, and there are a bunch of other Pro Bowlers and likely Hall of Famers strewn about both rosters surrounding them. In other words, this game has everything you could ask for as a football fan. So how about we save ourselves some time, and skip the whole flowery introduction to this column and just get to what you came here for.
The picks. All lines are via the William Hill Sportsbook.
Super Bowl LV is almost here, and you can watch it for free on the CBS Sports App.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
I hate the spread in this game. It currently sits at Chiefs -3, and that number seems perfect to me. I have the Chiefs about 3.2 points better than the Bucs, so if the line is at 3 or 3.5, I don't want anything to do with it. Now, if the line somehow creeps to the Bucs +4 or the Chiefs -2.5, I would then consider going in those directions. It's just, I don't see the line moving that much before kickoff. It's been steady since first posted, and there is no apparent public side that's likely to swing one way or the other.
But I love the Under in this spot. I've done some research, and the Over has gone 27-26 in the first 54 Super Bowls (there was no total in Super Bowl I). If we dig further than that, though, we discover that among the 27 Super Bowls that finished Over the total, only four of them had a total of 49.5 points or higher, with 49 being a key number in football totals (it's divisible by seven). There have been 12 Super Bowls with a total of 49.5 or higher in history, and the Under has gone 8-4 in those games. If we look at just the past decade, when we've seen an offensive explosion in the NFL, the Under is 4-1 in the five Super Bowls to feature a total of 49.5 or greater.
It's natural for oddsmakers to inflate the total a bit for the Super Bowl. It's the most heavily bet game of the year, with a lot of public action, and the public is prone to rooting for a lot of points to be scored, so they lean Over. Books adjust for that.
More so than just the trend, or the public action, the matchup strikes me as a good one as well. Tampa will likely approach Kansas City the same way it did Green Bay. The best way to beat Patrick Mahomes is to keep him off the field, so the Bucs will want to run the ball. Tampa should find success doing so, with Kansas City's defense ranking 31st in the league in defensive DVOA against the run. I don't know if they'll find enough to win the game, but enough to limit the overall number of possessions and keep us below a high total.
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24
Best bet: Under 56 (-110)
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Super Bowl props
Did you know that Tom Brady is old? I'm not sure that's been mentioned at any point this season or over the last week as we build up to the Super Bowl. Well, he is. For a professional athlete, anyway. But not only is he old, but he wasn't mobile when he was in his 20s, and he's even less mobile now. So you aren't going to see him running with the ball on Sunday.
The risk is that he gets a QB sneak at some point, but so far this season, Brady has played 19 games, and he's finished with 0 rushing yards or fewer in 14 of them. The pick: Tom Brady Under 0.5 rushing yards (-150)
I'm taking this for the same reason I took the Under on Mahomes' rushing total in the AFC Championship Game: his toe. Leading up to the game this week, Mahomes has said that his turf toe is "close to 100 percent," but I don't believe him. It typically takes around three weeks to recover from turf toe when you're resting the injury, and Mahomes has not been resting the injury. He played through it in the AFC championship, and it clearly hindered his ability and desire to run with the ball.
I don't think a week off will heal the toe completely, and I'm expecting Mahomes to be a bit limited in his mobility for the Super Bowl as well, so I see value on this total. The pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 22.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Super Bowl MVP often goes to the game-winning quarterback, even when it shouldn't. For instance, back in LI, I bet on New England's James White to win the MVP at +3300. I thought it was a terrific matchup for him and that he'd be utilized heavily by the Patriots offense. I was right, too, as White finished the game with 139 total yards and three touchdowns, including the touchdown to tie the game in the final minute and the game-winner in the fourth quarter.
They gave the MVP award to Brady anyway because he's Brady (and he had thrown for over 400 yards, but still).
Well, this year, I think this is an excellent matchup for Travis Kelce. The Bucs defense is one of the best in the league, and while it doesn't have a significant weakness, it has had more difficulty keeping tight ends in check than receivers. So with Kelce and Tyreek Hill sitting at the same odds, I'm leaning toward Kelce. I wouldn't be surprised if he catches multiple touchdowns in this game and puts up a great stat line.
Nor will I be surprised if Kelce does all that and they give the award to Mahomes, but that is the risk we take when betting Super Bowl MVP props. The pick: Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP (+1100)
| Record | Units | |
|---|---|---|
Last Week | 2-0 | 2 |
Season | 31-24-4 | 4.7 |
