The surging Texans go for their 10th straight win and the AFC South crown when they host the Colts at 1 p.m. ET Sunday at NRG Stadium. Houston (9-3) would clinch its fifth division title since 2011 with a win, while Indianapolis (6-6) must win to keep its wild-card hopes alive in the AFC playoff picture. Both teams have failed to cover six games this season, but have positive point differentials. The Colts covered against the Texans in the first meeting this season. Sportsbooks list Houston as a four-point favorite after the line climbed as high as five. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 49.5 in the latest Colts vs. Texans odds after moving as high as 50. Before you make any Colts vs. Texans picks and predictions, see what Houston expert Micah Roberts has to say.
A Vegas legend who ran a chain of sportsbooks for over a dozen years, Roberts now releases his strongest plays directly to SportsLine members. And when it comes to the Texans, there's no one better to listen to, as Roberts has nailed six straight spread picks for or against Houston. Two weeks ago, Roberts said the Texans (-4) would put on a winning defensive display and cover easily against the Titans. The result: Houston 34, Tennessee 17 -- another rocking-chair cash. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, based on his proprietary power ratings, Roberts has spotted extreme value on one side of the Colts vs. Texans spread. He's only sharing his pick at SportsLine.
Roberts knows Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is playing efficiently, committing zero turnovers in five of his last six games and rushing for 100 yards combined the past two weeks. Houston also has a strong ground game led by running back Lamar Miller, who has four 100-yard games in the last six weeks. The division-leading Texans also boast a fearsome defense that ranks third in points allowed (19.6).
DeAndre Hopkins is stating his case as the NFL's top receiver: He has caught 80 balls for 1,115 yards and eight touchdowns. Houston is clicking on all cylinders and has a realistic chance, given its schedule, of ending the regular season on a 13-game win streak, as it faces the 3-9 Jets, 6-6 Eagles, and 4-9 Jaguars after Sunday's tilt with the Colts.
But just because Houston has dominated lately doesn't mean the Texans will cover more than a field goal against a talented division rival.
The Colts were the NFL's second-hottest team until a frustrating 6-0 loss in Jacksonville last week. Indy still averages 27.1 points per game, eighth-most in the league, and quarterback Andrew Luck has thrown at least three touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games.
Indy will be highly confident entering this matchup. Before the overtime squeaker in Week 4, the Colts had beaten Houston two straight times, including 20-14 last year at NRG Stadium. And the last nine times Indy was held under 15 points, the Colts bounced back strong, going 7-2 against the spread next time out.
We can tell you Roberts is leaning Under, but his much stronger play is against the spread. He knows there's a major X-factor that causes one side of the spread to hit hard. He's only sharing what it is, and which team to back, at SportsLine.
Who covers in Colts vs. Texans? And what major X-factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to get Micah Roberts' strong against-the-spread pick for Texans vs. Colts, all from the former Vegas bookmaker who's nailed six straight Texans picks.
