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The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both lead their respective divisions via tiebreaker and they'll go head-to-head on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET. That game is listed as a pick'em according to the latest Week 16 NFL odds. Which side should you back in that critical cross-conference rivalry matchup and what other Week 16 NFL spreads should you target for your Week 16 NFL parlay picks? Before you make any Week 16 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 16. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 16 NFL picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 16 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the New York Jets (-3) to cover against the Washington Commanders. Both teams have already been officially eliminated from the NFL playoffs but the Jets in particular should be motivated to build some momentum with a win here considering the prospect of Aaron Rodgers' return making them relevant again next season.

New York is only two weeks removed from a stunning 30-6 upset win over the Texans and the struggling offense should be granted a reprieve this week against the worst scoring defense and total defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, Washington hasn't scored more than 20 points in the last four weeks and has fallen below 300 yards of total offense in the last two games. Now the Commanders will take on a Jets defense that ranks seventh in yards allowed and the model has New York covering in well over 50% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 16 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including an underdog that wins outright. You can only see the model's Week 16 NFL best bets and parlay at SportsLine

What are the model's top Week 16 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 16 NFL best bets from a model on a 178-129 run on top-rated picks, and find out.