Many of the Week 18 NFL lines have shifted with the announcements of several star players sitting out the regular season finale. Patrick Mahomes not dressing has resulted in the Chiefs now being 3.5-point underdogs to the Chargers in the latest Week 18 NFL odds. Another movement in the Week 18 NFL spreads came as a result of Cleveland sitting Joe Flacco and other starters ahead of a Sunday matchup with Cincinnati. The Bengals opened as 3.5-point favorites, but are now favored by seven against a team locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC.
Additionally, Rams vs. 49ers will see Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey all sitting. Some NFL Vegas lines have yet to adjust to players being unavailable, and these are ones you could exploit with Week 18 NFL bets. Before you make any Week 18 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 18. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 18 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 18 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the New Orleans Saints (-3) to cover at home against the Atlanta Falcons. New Orleans still has paths to both the NFC South crown or a wild card berth, but both paths begin with a victory over Atlanta, thus the Saints have a huge incentive to play their very best. Their defense has also been the very best over the last four games as it has allowed the fewest points in the NFL over that span. New Orleans has covered in three of those games, while Atlanta is just 1-3 versus the spread over its last four.
The Falcons are only 2-11 straight-up and 3-10 ATS on the road over their last 13 games, with the Superdome providing one of the best home-field advantages for any NFL team. The Saints have won their last two games in the venue by a combined score of 52-12, not allowing a touchdown in either. The Falcons have struggled scoring touchdowns anywhere this season, ranking 26th in the NFL with 19 points per game. SportsLine's sims have Atlanta failing to even reach that number on Sunday, as the Saints (-3) cover in almost 60% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 18 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including an underdog that wins outright. You can only see the model's Week 18 NFL best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model's top Week 18 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 18 NFL best bets from a model on a 178-129 run on top-rated picks, and find out.
