The NHL announced its three Hart Trophy finalists on Tuesday, with Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon and Artemi Panarin still in the running for league MVP. There are plenty of discussions to be had around this trio of finalists and this year's race is rather intriguing -- and not just because the regular season was cut short (and the playoff field expanded) due to coronavirus. There are cases to be made both for and against all three candidates, so let's make them.
Nathan MacKinnon
The case for: The strongest argument for MacKinnon is his level of production relative to the rest of his team. At 93 points (35 goals, 58 assists), he nearly doubled the output of the next highest point-getter on his team (Cale Makar, 47 points) -- a team, by the way, that finished with the second-best record in the conference. It's a situation reminiscent of 2018 when Taylor Hall won the Hart after finishing nearly 40 points clear of every other player on the Devils. (MacKinnon finished as runner-up in that year's voting.)
MacKinnon should also get some credit for keeping up that level of production despite losing his two most frequent linemates (Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog) for extended stretches during the year. In addition to finishing fifth in the league in points, MacKinnon showed improvement defensively without sacrificing his elite offensive production. He's not quite in the Selke discussion but he's reliable in his own end and is one of the most complete players in the league. There aren't many players who have showcased more overall ability and value than MacKinnon over the past three years.
The case against: MacKinnon's numbers just aren't quite as sexy on paper as the two guys he's going up against. Draisaitl's production clears MacKinnon's by a significant margin and is somewhat of a comparable as someone who has carried a heavy load and thrived despite injuries around him on a playoff team.
Artemi Panarin
The case for: Panarin was the primary catalyst of the Rangers' offense in his first season in New York. He finished third in the league in points (95) and first in even-strength points (71), all while elevating the play of everyone else around him. For context, Panarin's most frequent linemate this season was Ryan Strome, who had cleared the 35-point threshold just once in his career before this season.
Not only was he a driving force for New York's offensive attack all season long but the advanced metrics make a strong case for him being the single most valuable and impactful skater this season based on relative impact. When he was on the ice the Rangers scored 66% of the goals, and that share dropped down to 42% when he wasn't on the ice. According to Evolving Hockey's model, Panarin's 24.9 goals above replacement (GAR), 4.4 wins above replacement (WAR) and 8.5 standings points above replacement (SPAR) are tops in the league.
Panarin's case may also be strengthened by the fact that we saw what this team was without him last year. The Rangers finished with 79 points in 70 games this season, a jump up from the 78 points they finished with over a full 82-game schedule last year. They also finished fifth in the league in goals scored per game, a mammoth leap from 23rd last year. Panarin can take credit for much of that improvement.
The case against: New York made a late-season push to jump into the playoff discussion in an ultra-competitive Metro division, but they were still on the outside looking in when the season came to halt. They did ultimately earn a postseason berth thanks to the expanded format, but they're essentially the 11th seed out of 12 teams in the Eastern Conference.
This is an unprecedented postseason scenario so it's almost impossible to know how voters will weigh the legitimacy of the 24 teams that are technically playoff teams. But given what we know about voter tendencies -- you generally have to be on a playoff team to win Hart -- it may hurt Panarin if voters don't view the Rangers as a true playoff squad.
Leon Draisaitl
The case for: If you're simply looking at the production, Draisaitl is probably the leader in your clubhouse due to how sexy his numbers are. He led the league in points with 110 (the only player to finish over the 100 point threshold) in 71 games played, finishing fourth in goals (43) and first in assists (67). That sort of production is very difficult to overlook, especially when you consider eight of the past 10 Hart winners have led the league in points or goals.
Additionally, the Oilers are very much a team that relies on the contributions of a few players, Draisaitl being one of them. Their success this season came thanks in large part to Draisaitl carrying a large portion of the offensive load. He has directly factored into nearly 50 percent of his team's total offense. And those who want to argue that Draisaitl is a product (or major beneficiary) of playing with Connor McDavid have lost a little bit of ammo this season. Drai's case is strengthened by the fact that he was pulled off McDavid's wing for a large portion of the year and still thrived -- even when McDavid was completely out of the lineup.
The case against: Even though Draisaitl technically played on a line separate from McDavid for much of the season, they still shared the ice for a large amount of time thanks to overlap and special teams. Ultimately, Draisaitl shared the ice with McDavid more than any other teammate (846:48 mins TOI) this year and that has to be taken into account. It shouldn't discredit what Draisaitl was able to accomplish -- he was an offensive monster in his own right and isn't anywhere close to being a passenger -- but playing alongside the best player in the world will certainly help inflate offensive production.
But the biggest argument against Draisaitl is his play defensively. He was a liability in his own end this year and ranked among the league's worst defensive forwards. His net contributions were still overwhelmingly positive but his struggles on defense could hurt his case for an overall MVP award.
