The Duke Blue Devils will take on the Louisville Cardinals in ACC action on Monday night in Durham, N.C. Both traditional college basketball powers are having down years in their first season with new head coaches, albeit to different degrees. Duke is 19-8 in Jon Scheyer's first year at the helm a season after going 32-7 and making the Final Four. Louisville is 4-23 in Kenny Payne's first season. Duke is currently sixth in the ACC with a 10-6 mark in conference play while Louisville is last in the league with a 2-14 record.
Tipoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on Monday at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Duke is a perfect 13-0 on the season. The programs have split their last four meetings head-to-head both straight up and against the spread, but the Blue Devils are 18-point favorites in the latest Louisville vs. Duke odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over/under is listed at 137.5. Before locking in any Duke vs. Louisville picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 16 of the season 71-42 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Louisville and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Louisville vs. Duke:
- Duke vs. Louisville spread: Duke -18
- Duke vs. Louisville over/under: 137.5 points
- Duke vs. Louisville money line: Louisville +1150, Duke -2400
- LOU: The Cardinals are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall
- DUKE: The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning % below .400
- Duke vs. Louisville picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Duke can cover
The Blue Devils are coming off a dominant 77-55 win over the Syracuse Orange on Saturday. Jeremy Roach led Duke with 17 points in the victory and Kyle Filipowski contributed a double-double with 14 points and 11 rebounds. It was the 12th double-double of the season for Filipowski, who is averaging 15.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game in his freshman season.
Duke held Syracuse to 34.5% shooting from the floor in the victory and has now held four of its last seven opponents to under 40% shooting. The Blue Devils rank 34th in the nation in points allowed per game (64.0) and rank 28th in 3-point shooting percentage allowed (30.4). They'll be looking to run a Louisville squad that has shot 37.6% from beyond the arc in its last six games off the 3-point line.
Why Louisville can cover
Senior guard El Ellis leads the Cardinals, averaging 18 points, 4.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game. He is hitting on 41.5% of his field goals, and is an 80.7% free-throw shooter. He has been on fire the last three games, scoring 20 points or more in each. He scored 33 in a 93-85 loss at No. 19 Miami on Feb. 11, scored 21 against seventh-ranked Virginia on Wednesday and had 28 in Saturday's win over Clemson. He has registered one double-double on the season, scoring 30 points and dishing out 10 assists in a 94-83 win over Western Kentucky on Dec. 14.
Also having a solid season is junior forward Jae'lyn Withers, who averages 9.6 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. He is connecting on 44.4% of his field goals, including a blistering 43.8% from 3-point range, and 77.6% from the foul line. He has reached double-figure scoring in two of the past three games, and in six of eight. He has also registered two double-doubles, including a 19-point and 13-rebound performance in a 68-58 win over Georgia Tech on Feb. 1.
How to make Louisville vs. Duke picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 138 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. Louisville? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
