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The 2021 Bahamas Championship will be decided Saturday morning on CBS Sports Network. The four-team event culminates in a battle between the Maryland Terrapins and the Louisville Cardinals at Baha Mar Convention Center. Maryland enters at 5-1 after a six-point victory over Richmond on Thursday. Louisville is 4-1 this season, defeating Mississippi State by double figures in its last game.

Tipoff is at 10 a.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Cardinals as 1-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 138 in the latest Louisville vs. Maryland odds. Before making any Maryland vs. Louisville picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Maryland vs. Louisville. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Louisville vs. Maryland:

  • Louisville vs. Maryland spread: Louisville -1
  • Louisville vs. Maryland over-under: 138 points
  • LOU: The Cardinals are 2-3 against the spread this season
  • MD: The Terrapins are 2-4 against the spread in the last six games
Featured Game | Louisville Cardinals vs. Maryland Terrapins

Why Louisville can cover

Louisville is a strong defensive team. The Cardinals are holding opponents to just 41.7 percent shooting on 2-point attempts and 29.2 percent shooting on 3-point attempts. Louisville is able to contest shots with regularity and attention to detail, and the Cardinals can benefit from a Maryland offense that is shooting just 28.5 percent from long range. Louisville is also above-average in steal rate (11.5 percent) and defensive rebound rate (74.1 percent) this season. 

On offense, the Cardinals are balanced, with six players averaging at least 7.0 points per game in the early going. Louisville is shooting 52.8 percent on 2-point attempts, and Maryland is allowing opponents to shoot 36.7 percent from 3-point distance. The Terrapins also struggle to a turnover creation rate outside the top 250 nationally, and Louisville should be comfortable in initiating sets without the fear of havoc creation from its opponent.

Why Maryland can cover

Maryland's offense is rock solid, but Mark Turgeon's team is even better on defense. The Terrapins are elite on the defensive glass, securing more than 80 percent of missed shots by opponents. Maryland is also blocking 14 percent of shots and allowing only 45.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts. The Terrapins rank in the top 35 nationally in free-throw prevention, and Louisville has some glaring offensive weaknesses for Maryland to exploit in this matchup.

The Cardinals are a poor shooting team, including 65.6 percent at the free-throw line and 31.5 percent from 3-point range. Louisville is also turning the ball over on nearly 20 percent of offensive possessions, which could fuel Maryland's transition game. The Terrapins also win the possession battle on offense, committing a turnover on 17 percent of possessions while dominating the offensive glass and producing free-throw attempts at an above-average clip.

How to make Maryland vs. Louisville picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 135 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Louisville vs. Maryland? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,100 on its college basketball picks the last five years, and find out.