North Carolina vs. Virginia odds, line: College basketball picks, Feb. 15 predictions by model on 42-27 roll

The Virginia Cavaliers look to continue their recent domination over the North Carolina Tar Heels when they meet in ACC action. The Cavaliers (16-7), who are fourth in the ACC at 8-5, are 3-4 on the road, while the Tar Heels (10-14), who are 15th in the conference at 3-10, are 5-7 on their home court. 

Saturday's tip-off from the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C., is set for 8 p.m. ET. North Carolina leads the all-time series 131-58, including a 16-12 edge under coach Roy Williams. The Tar Heels are 1.5-point favorites in the latest North Carolina vs. Virginia odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 117.5. Before making any Virginia vs. UNC picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 15 of the 2019-20 season on a 42-27 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UNC vs. Virginia. You can visit SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Virginia vs. North Carolina:

  • Virginia vs. North Carolina spread: North Carolina -1.5
  • Virginia vs. North Carolina over-under: 117.5 points
  • Virginia vs. North Carolina money line: Virginia +106, North Carolina -129
  • UVA: Is 11-0 when limiting opponents to fewer than 50 points
  • UNC: Leads the nation in rebounding at 43.4 per game

Why North Carolina can cover

The Tar Heels have dominated the Cavaliers at Chapel Hill, going 66-8 all-time including a 24-5 mark in the Dean Smith Center. Virginia has never won back-to-back games at North Carolina. In 17 seasons under Williams, the Tar Heels are 463-147 (.759), including three national championships -- 2005, 2009 and 2017. North Carolina has won seven of the last 10 at home against the Cavaliers.

Freshman guard Cole Anthony has been a bright spot for the Tar Heels, averaging 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He has scored in double figures in nine straight games and has recorded three double-doubles this season. Anthony scored 34 points in his collegiate debut in a 76-65 win over Notre Dame on Nov. 6 and has scored 20 or more points in six of 13 games.

Why Virginia can cover

Even so, the Tar Heels aren't a lock to cover the North Carolina vs. Virginia spread. That's because the Cavaliers are looking to clinch their 10th straight winning season and earn their seventh consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and eighth in nine years. Under coach Tony Bennett, now in his 11th year at the school, Virginia is 270-96 (.738). It has won five straight in the series, including a 56-47 win in Charlottesville, Va., on Dec. 8. The Cavaliers have won eight of 11 in the series and two of three at Chapel Hill.

Senior forward Mamadi Diakite leads Virginia in scoring at 13.6 points, and is second in rebounding at 6.7 per game. He has 504 career rebounds. Diakite has scored in double figures in eight of the last nine games, including a 20-point performance against Notre Dame on Tuesday. His best game was a 21-point performance against South Carolina on Dec. 22.

How to make North Carolina vs. Virginia picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says Virginia's Tomas Woldetensae will score one more point than his average, while North Carolina's Christian Keeling will better his average by three points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations. 

So who wins Virginia vs. North Carolina? And which side of the spread can you bank on in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UNC vs. Virginia spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,700 on its college basketball picks the last three years, and find out.

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