2017 College Bowl Odds: Confidence football pool picks and predictions from advanced computer model
SportsLine simulated every bowl game 10,000 times for pick'em leagues and confidence pools
With the 2017-18 college football postseason now locked in, fans across the nation will be entering bowl confidence pools and pick 'em leagues with their friends and coworkers. These are the contests where you make straight-up picks for every bowl game and then assign a confidence ranking based on how strongly you feel about each one.
The picks you have the most confidence in get the highest numbers, while the lowest numbers are assigned to picks you're least sure about. The goal is to pile up as many points as possible. It's that easy.
With so many games between teams that aren't familiar with each other and so many evenly matched games, you need to see who SportsLine's advanced computer model has the most confidence in.
This same model had double-digit profitable weeks last season and was an astonishing 8-1 on straight-up picks on Championship Weekend, nailing several close games like UCF's win over Memphis and Ohio State's victory over Wisconsin. It also went 10-1 on A-rated money line picks the last two bowl seasons.
Now it has simulated every bowl game 10,000 times and come up with some surprising results that will help you pick every game and correctly assign confidence points. You can only get these projections over at SportsLine.
One team the model is highly confident in: San Diego State. The Aztecs are winning 78 percent of simulations for their game against Army in the Armed Forces Bowl.
San Diego State finished the season on a hot streak, winning four straight games by double-digits. Army, meanwhile, won seven of its last eight games, including a thrilling 14-13 victory over Navy. It's the first time Army has beaten Navy in consecutive seasons since 1995-96.
The difference in the Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State's rush defense, which currently ranks eighth in the nation, will limit the success of Army star quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw, who rushed for over 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.
The model likes the San Diego State as its second-most confident pick at 38 points. They'll roll to a resounding 34-19 victory over Army, says the projection, so lock them in near the very top of your confidence pool.
On the other end of the spectrum, the model likes Northern Illinois to beat Duke in the Quick Lane Bowl, but the Huskies are only winning 50.4 percent of simulations in what is expected to be a tight game.
The Blue Devils come into the game at 6-6 as they prepare to face an 8-4 MAC squad. Both teams have been streaky this year, and with no common opponents and little data to provide a strong lean towards either side, this is a game to avoid a high confidence number on.
Take Northern Illinois, but go with the lowest possible points with this pick for a game that the model views as barely more than a coin flip.
So who wins every single College Football Bowl Game and how confident should you be in every single selection? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations and which picks you can lock in with the most confidence, all from the model that went an amazing 8-1 on straight-up picks during Championship Weekend, and find out.
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