PHOENIX -- Big 12 expansion is a case of visualization.
Meaning, you have to squint real hard to see a school that brings football value to the conference.
Yeah, the shopping is that bad. More discount aisle at K-Mart than Sharper Image. If you’re like a lot of us and believe Big 12 expansion is inevitable, that’s one thing.
Trying to make sense out of it is another. Lining up the candidates conjures more images of a firing squad than a fashion show.
This is a whole different scenario than six-and-a-half years ago when Jim Delany sent out his infamous expansion letter. Back then, it was about a system flush with new media rights cash and conferences for fistfuls of it in realignment.
Today, those same media giants are laying off folks by the hundreds and broadcasting games from their studios to save money. (You’re looking live at the Cotton Bowl, but listening live from Studio 8H!)
As I wrote earlier this week, this time it isn’t necessarily about money. There are no two schools that make the Big 12 better in football. The conference schedule would be diluted. No more round-robin.
Sure, the Big 12 would get about $3 million more per school by playing a championship game. Sure, the new schools would get a windfall by coming to the Big 12 but not so much the conference.
I love the line from an industry source: The source considered an expansion candidate from the American Athletic Conference matriculating to the Big 12. Its annual media rights revenue would go from $1.6 million to $23 million.
“Why,” the source said, “because they changed the logo on their jersey?”
So what’s this about if the football gets worse overall and there is little financial gain? The conference gets a certain level of security with more teams. The odds say it’s more likely the Big 12 plays in the College Football Playoff by expanding.
The American – the conference most likely affected – will move on. I had a conversation with American commissioner Mike Aresco here this week. He was aware that losing teams was a possibility but the conference wouldn't necessarily expand just to get back to 12.
Wait, isn’t 10 the composition of the One True Champion Big 12 at the moment? The more things change, the more they stay confused.
If this is about visualization, my eyes are glazing over. Here goes, then, with possibly the most dangerous endeavor since following Aaron Moorehead -- ranking the Big 12 expansion candidates:
1. Cincinnati: The school has been the most public and most aggressive in Big 12 expansion. Some of that is the result the fine reporting in the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Some credit goes to the wife of a former Big Eight and interim Big 12 commissioner.
To me, Cincinnati is this year’s TCU. The Horned Frogs had been good for about five years when the realignment merry-go-round stopped at their doorstep in October 2011. The Big 12 didn’t necessarily need TCU but it needed a willing partner with a football pulse.
Cincinnati sort of fits that profile. Under Brian Kelly, Butch Jones and now Tommy Tuberville, the Bearcats have been serviceable, going to back-to-back BCS bowls and winning 70 percent of their games in the last nine years.
Cincinnati has upgraded its facilities. But it would be an urban school in a league full of land grants and state schools. Good fit?
Here’s the one image I can’t get past: A 9-3 Cincinnati upsets an 11-1 Texas or Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game. Suddenly, a “Big 12 champions” flag is flying over southern Ohio while the Longhorns or Sooners are knocked out of the playoff.
How’s that for psychologically disadvantaged?
2. Central Florida: I can’t give you a good reason why UCF should be the other expansion candidate except it seems to be more footbally than anyone else at the moment.
It’s in SEC territory. It’s not isolated. It wants to be Florida or Florida State, but probably never will be. However, getting to the Big 12 could brand UCF the way no research grant could.
Given the day of the week, UCF is either first or second nationally in enrollment. It has gone full throttle trying to portray itself as a major-college football program. It’s done a fairly good job under the at-times controversial George O’Leary.
Blake Bortles came out of the program as a first-round draft choice. New coach Scott Frost brings all sorts of young, upwardly mobile momentum. I don’t know if you admit a school because it runs Chip Kelly’s offense, but why not? It works for the moment.
What I know for sure: You don’t invite UCF because the Big 12 needs to be in Florida. News flash: Everyone recruits in Florida. There’s a load of talent there.
This isn’t about TV “eyeballs” or “footprint” or any of that malarkey. It’s about an emerging football school in the state of Florida.
There are worse options. Read on ...
3. Houston: The Cougars aren’t going to the Big 12 for a lot of reasons.
The Big 12 is firmly entrenched in Texas. For the same reason, it doesn’t need to be in Orlando to recruit Florida, it sure as hell doesn’t need to be in Houston to recruit Texas.
Texas -- the school -- would probably be against getting the Southwest Conference band back together.
But the Cougars have money, a new stadium and under Tom Herman are starting to recruit with the big boys. Houston is the No. 1 Group of Five choice to crack the playoff this season. The Cougs will start the season in the top 10.
One of their biggest boosters – a Houston billionaire -- has his own reality show.
Traditionally, Houston is a fifth option in its own market. Success by Kevin Sumlin and Herman has changed that. If nothing else, it would be great theater to watch the recruiting wars that would go on among Texas, TCU and Baylor.
4. BYU: The Cougars are absolutely the best football option.
The school invests in football at a Power Five level. It has great tradition and a massive following. There is sticky issue here: BYU would be the third private religious flagship school in the conference.
That would be a quarter of the league possibly voting as a block. It doesn’t seem like much in the grand scheme of things, but the three schools could unite over some moral issue.
Talk to administrators and dealing with a private school is just … different. BYU is extremely different. The Cougars don’t play contests on Sunday although I’m told that wouldn’t be an issue if the Big 12 called. Neither is the conference’s world-wide network a problem. BYU would cede the one game a year shown on its network to the Big 12 inventory.
But there is a reason BYU is playing independent. It believed it could be a Notre Dame Jr. It thought its brand was better than mere mortals in those … conferences.
Now BYU is admitting it was wrong. That is if you believe BYU administration desperately wants into a Power Five conference.
The Cougars may have to settle for the Mountain West. I believe when the Big 12 presidents sit down to vote, they’ll take all that into account.
The answer will be no on BYU.
5. South Florida: Central Florida is a better fit. Almost no buzz about USF at this point.
The Bulls play in a pro stadium but have made few football national headlines since moving up to No. 2 in the BCS in 2007.
6. Memphis: Traditionally has gotten by in a recruiting-rich area with SEC leftovers.
Memphis isn’t a market, nor does it have a national brand. Justin Fuente showed what could be done there, but left recently for Virginia Tech. Memphis’ athletic department revenue ($43 million) would be last in the Big 12.
That’s a bad optic.
7. UConn: Here’s another bad optic: Texas travelling to UConn to play on a cold, windy night Thursday night before 27,000.
At some point, Texas officials would have to ask, “What the heck are we doing here?” Judging by Twitter, UConn fancies itself the favorite in the clubhouse.
Uh, no. UConn doesn’t “deliver” the New York market. UConn might be the best player never to win a major. (Translated: Best school not in the Power Five) But it’s a long way back to the big time. It’s not always what you deserve; it’s what you can deliver.
West Virginia AD Shane Lyons said his school doesn’t need a travel partner. Storrs is a seven-and-a-half hour car trip from Morgantown.
There’s great basketball at UConn, but this isn’t about basketball. It’s about better football candidates being closer to the heart of the Big 12. Theoretically, there would be teams flying to BYU and UConn in the same season.
The Big 12 doesn’t need that to be more competitive in the CFP.
8. Boise State: Had to think twice before even including the Broncos. But I was on a Boise radio station this week which – in this race – is good enough to qualify Boise State as a candidate.
Boise is one of the coolest towns and Boise State is one of the coolest schools on the college football circuit. Beers at The Ram. Trout fishing in the Boise River.
There can’t be enough said about what Chris Petersen established there and what Bryan Harsin is continuing with the Broncos. Boise State was one of the original BCS busters and can be something similar in the playoff era.
But the Big 12 ain’t going to an isolated burg in Idaho to play in a 36,000-seat stadium.
