You can tell when the calendar is about to change months early in the baseball season. The prospect chatter always seems to increase and the transaction report gets a bit longer.
May 1 is upon us and some prospects are pushing for a pre-June arrival. We quickly break down the top 10 prospect newsmakers this week, hoping this scatter-like shotgun spray will hit some of the surprise arrivals this weekend -- or more realistically in the next 10 days to two weeks.
1. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs (15 percent owned)
A report on ESPNChicago.com says "Castro's ascension to the major leagues could be right around the corner, according to a major league source." The fact Castro is just 20 years old makes us believe nothing is as imminent as that source might think. We will call that story bunk and far too speculative, even if it excites us in the prospect rat-race. The Cubs are ready to shake things up, moving ace Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, but they would have to move Ryan Theriot to second base to slot the raw talent in the majors amid a pennant race. That would be a dicey and drastic move, albeit far more logical than Big Z in a setup role. Castro is hitting a ridiculous .370 with a homer, 18 RBI, 15 runs, four steals, .416 OBP and .593 SLUG. He doesn't walk much at all, but he has only struck out nine times in Double-A in 81 at-bats, a good sign he isn't overmatched. His ownership needs to rocket upward on CBSSports.com, even if it is more likely he is promoted to Triple-A soon rather than the major leagues.
2. Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles (19 percent owned)
When you throw a no-hitter and the big club is temporarily going with a four-man rotation, Fantasy owners tend to jump on the bandwagon. Tillman won't be the call-up for Saturday's No. 5 starter's slot, but he could position himself for an arrival a few turns later. You don't get any more impressive than the no-hitter he pitched Wednesday, walking one and striking out six. He needed just 105 pitches, perhaps the only reason he was allowed to go the distance.
3. Michael Stanton, OF, Marlins (26 percent owned)
The Marlins said they needed to see Stanton dominate Double-A before he could be moved up. He struggled there in 2009, hitting just .231 with 99 strikeouts in 299 at-bats after being moved up from high Class A. This week he popped off with five homers in two games (six in four), forcing the organization to answer some questions about when he might arrive. "Two good days in a row are not going to influence our decision," said Jim Fleming, the Marlins' assistant GM and vice president for player development. "It's (all about) at-bats over time. We need a consistent pattern and he has been pretty consistent, but those two days are just that." For the season, Stanton is hitting .338 with nine homers, 22 RBI, 20 runs, a .489 OBP and .789 SLUG. Interestingly, he has walked 20 times and struck out 19 in 71 at-bats -- a much better ratio. He is too good for Double-A right now, so perhaps a move to Triple-A New Orleans could come soon. Chris Coghlan's sophomore struggles suggest a 2010 arrival is possible, too.
4. Buster Posey, C, Giants (45 percent owned)
There have been discussions in the organization about promoting Posey before June, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. We don't see how they could do that with veteran Bengie Molina hitting .350, but they could slot Posey as a super utility man. He was versatile at Florida State, playing all nine positions in his final game there. The fact Posey could arrive and not play regularly at catcher actually hurts his Fantasy value some. Keeper leagues that need players to stay off the active roster in order to be retained on prospects lists might actually hope he stays down.
5. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals (86 percent owned)
OK, we tried to bury the lede but couldn't resist mentioning this name. Unlike Tillman, Strasburg is being held to a tight pitch count in Double-A, going five perfect innings, striking out six Tuesday night. Strasburg's ERA sits at 0.52 and his batting-average against is .115 through 17 1/3 innings. Clearly, he is ready to move, but a promotion to Triple-A will come first. "As he progresses, he is going to go to (Triple-A) Syracuse and is going to pitch there until we deem he is ready to go to the next level," GM Mike Rizzo said. "It's reasonable to assume he is going to be in Syracuse sometime soon." They have already announced he will start Sunday in Double-A, so a move to Triple-A seems likely after that game.
6. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Reds (74 percent owned)
Chapman is already in Triple-A, stretching out to a career-high six innings in start No. 4 on Wednesday night. Through 21 innings, he has struck out 22 and allowed a mere .192 batting-average against. We said five or six starts and 25-30 innings before a call-up. By this time next week, we could be anticipating an imminent arrival. Aaron Harang got his act together in his past start, so Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey have the spotlight on themselves their next time out.
7. Carlos Santana, C, Indians (40 percent owned)
We listed the struggling early-season major leaguers who were looking over their shoulder at elite prospects in Triple-A. Of that group, Ike Davis and Justin Smoak arrived shortly after. No. 1 on that top five list was Santana. He still waits. Lou Marson has picked up the production the past couple of days, but Marson's production won't matter once the Indians decide to pull the trigger on Santana. "People ask all the time, 'When are you going to The Show?'" Santana told the Akron Beacon Journal this week. "I just say, 'I'm working here. I'm working to get better. Soon.'" His manager Mike Sarbaugh says: "The consensus has always been [that] his bat's already there; it's just being consistent defensively game to game."
8. Jake Arrieta, SP, Orioles (13 percent owned)
We already figure Brad Bergesen is a done deal for Saturday, but Arrieta is just as worthy of a call-up. He has allowed runs in only one of his four starts this season, posting a 0.36 ERA and .157 batting-average against, striking out 25 in 23 innings. Those are Strasburg-quality numbers. Arrieta could still be held back a few days to make his debut Saturday but do we really need him to be the Orioles' No. 5 starter? How about making Jeremy Guthrie a closer, or David Hernandez a reliever?
9. Trevor Cahill, SP, Athletics (17 percent owned)
For all the disappointment in Brett Anderson's elbow issue, we do get a silver lining: Cahill could get his 2010 rotation shot. We figure he gets the call over Vin Mazzaro as the A's temporary Anderson fill-in. If Cahill pitches well, he will stick around long term and prove worthy of being added even in mixed leagues. He might not have Anderson's knockout stuff, but he is a quality young arm that is more wise beyond his years (innings) than most.
10. Brad Bergesen, SP, Orioles (6 percent owned)
OK, so he's already been around this season, but the fact he will get the recall before the no-hit author Tillman and red-hot Arrieta makes him newsworthy. We slot him 10th on this list because he is the least likely to hold value in mixed leagues, even if he will be the first to arrive Saturday. Bergesen is not helped any by pitching for the Orioles right now, a team that had the embarrassing distinction of having half as many victories as baseball's lowest total. The Orioles had just four wins before play Thursday, while the Royals, White Sox, Braves, Astros and Dodgers were tied for the next-lowest at eight. Ew.
Prospect watch
Every week we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.
Rookie watch
Top AL rookies to date
- Austin Jackson, OF, DET -- He is striking out once every three at-bats, but he is hitting, running and scoring.
- Wade Davis, SP, TB -- His mid-90s stuff is pretty impressive and makes him a must-own in all leagues now.
- Neftali Feliz, RP, TEX -- He has struggled more of late, but the Rangers are sticking with him at closer still.
- Brian Matusz, SP, BAL -- He looks capable of being a winner even with the lowly O's, but they hold him back.
- Reid Brignac, 2B, TB -- He has been far more consistent than Sean Rodriguez, which might earn him more time.
- Honorable mentions: Mitch Talbot, SP, CLE; Joaquin Arias, 2B, TEX; Alfredo Simon, RP, BAL; Scott Sizemore, 2B, DET; Brennan Boesch, OF, DET; Luke Hughes, 2B, MIN; John Jaso, C, TB; Tyson Ross, RP, OAK; and Sergio J. Santos, RP, CHW.
Top NL rookies to date
- Jaime Garcia, SP, STL -- He is looking like a must-own and must-start in all Fantasy leagues at this point.
- Mike Leake, SP, CIN -- Even we are surprised at how well he has held up without any minor league innings.
- Jason Heyward, OF, ATL -- He has hit his first extended slump, but he should come out of this very soon.
- Tyler Colvin, OF, CHC -- We didn't see him getting this many at-bats, or doing quite this much with them.
- Ike Davis, 1B, NYM -- He has hit the ground running with his gap power and run production through Week 1.
- Honorable mentions: Ian Desmond, SS, WAS; Luis Atilano, SP, WAS; Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL; David Freese, 3B, STL; Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA; Jonathon Niese, SP, NYM; Esmil Rogers, RP, COL; Dan Runzler, RP, SF; James Russell, RP, CHC; Hisanori Takahashi, RP, NYM; Jenrry Mejia, RP, NYM; and Eric O. Young, 2B, COL.
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