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We're inside two months to go, which means less than one-third of the season remains.
That's crunch time where I come from.
If you're still feeling your way through the season, unsure how to value your players because you've only recently come to learn that not every one is at his best for all 162 games of the season, it's fair to say you're playing recklessly. You can ill afford another misstep because you no longer have the time to make up for it. And that's all the more true with each passing week.
Time to play with some conviction, to dump the dead weight, make some trades in leagues where you still can, settle on a starting lineup, and have a blessed day, sir.
Of course, to do that, you'll have to have some sense of what every player you own is worth, and to address that, Al Melchior and I have rest-of-season rankings. I'd like to draw your attention to those now by explaining some of the recent changes I've made to mine.
It's been a while since I've taken the time to do that -- months, actually -- so some of you may not remember how it works. Ideally, you'll want to have the rankings open so you can follow along, but for those whose mobile devices don't allow for such gymnastics, I've now figured out how paste relevant portions of the rankings directly into the blog post, making it all pretty-like.
Surely, this is the future Jules Verne foretold.
• Guys, Kyle Schwarber is awesome, and now that we can confirm he'll still get to play even with Miguel Montero back in the lineup, the rankings reflect it.
You could make the case for him as high as second, honestly, but I have a little something called pride that prevents me from making a change I halfway expect to unmake just a week from now. Stephen Vogt's and Jonathan Lucroy's peripherals -- plate discipline, BABIP, etc. -- suggest both will bounce back, and we know at their best, they're elite.
• Notice another big riser on that list? Yep, Welington Castillo is now advisable in one-catcher leagues, and yet he's still owned in only 52 percent of CBSSports.com leagues even with eight home runs in his last 12 games. I'm not saying he'll hit eight home runs in his next 12 games, but I'm beginning to buy into the power breakthrough. His average fly ball distance is greater than Bryce Harper's, after all, and while his batting average is helped by all the home runs, his BABIP is such that we won't be left with a .240 hitter when he inevitably cools off. He may be something of an all-or-nothing time, but relative to the rest of position, I'm struggling to understand how he's not must-own.
On to first base ...
• Chris Davis joins Mark Teixeira in the doomed-if-he-stops-hitting-homers-but-looking-like-he-won't category of first basemen. Both have actually outperformed their ranking so far, so I'm accounting for some small regression. Really hard to squeeze them into that group ahead of them. Those players just have so few flaws. I mean, Albert Pujols could stand to swap a few of his home runs for some of Prince Fielder's batting average, but it's not like you're dissatisfied with anything any of those players has done so far.
• Ben Paulsen looks like the latest beneficiary of the Coors effect now that he's the Rockies' one and only at first base. I don't know that he stands out from the Billy Butlers and Adam LaRoches of the world if he plays someplace normal like San Diego or Detroit, but at Colorado, he's batting .330 with a .981 OPS. Only reason I don't rank him higher is because of those pesky road games.
• Second base gets a little crazy outside of the top four.
Ian Kinsler is trouncing Dee Gordon in Head-to-Head points to date, but I think that's more a reflection of how their last few weeks have gone than anything else. It's not like Kinsler stands out in any way -- not even peripherally. Then somehow you have to account for Ben Zobrist's shortstop eligibility and the eternal is-he-or-isn't-he dilemma with Robinson Cano. It's just a headache. You could put those guys in any order, and I wouldn't take exception to it.
• Ranking injured players is especially tricky this time of year since you can't be sure they'll return in time to make an impact. I like Howie Kendrick's chances better than Devon Travis', but by the time either returns, I think Hector Olivera will have settled in with the Braves. The haul they gave up for him would seem to validate the most optimistic scouting reports, so I could see him being top 12 rest of way. A worthy, if not quite mandatory, stash.
Nothing new at shortstop, right? Riiight ...
• Remember Jed Lowrie? Carlos Correa may have stolen his shortstop job, but he has been playing third base more days than not since returning from a three-month absence. So playing time isn't an issue, and it's not like he lost his shortstop eligibility with the position change. Among shortstop-eligible players, he ranks behind only Correa in Head-to-Head points per game. I might rank him as high as 11th if I trusted him to stay on the field.
How about third base?
• Yep, Todd Frazier gets a little down arrow next to him -- that's what going 16 for 92 (.174) since the All-Star break will do for a player -- but considering there's a clear tier of four at the top of the position, his drop is a superficial one. His first half answered every question I had about him after breakout 2014, and I'm not going to back down at the first sign of trouble. (And hey, he went 3 for 4 with a home run Tuesday. Look out, Manny Machado.)
• I already discussed Davis' rise at first base, but here it's probably more significant. He now serves as the barrier between those I feel good about starting every week and those I ... well, I'd feel better about starting them if there weren't so many of them. I feel for the guy who has to decide between Adrian Beltre and Maikel Franco every week. Maybe you can work out a trade with someone who got burned at the position.
• Time to give credit where credit is due in the outfield.
I came around to Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock and Mookie Betts killing it with peripherals a few weeks ago, and that's also true for Michael Brantley even with his reduced home runs this season. Now it's time for me to show some love for the long ball. Nelson Cruz and J.D. Martinez are kind of the outfield version of Teixeira and Davis. If they stop hitting home runs, they have nothing to fall back on, but, well, they're not stopping. In Cruz's case, it's enough to make him the best of the non-Trout/Harper/McCutchen/Bautista quartet, and in Martinez's case, gosh, I could maybe put him as high as 12th. (In case it's not obvious, Hanley Ramirez gets a bump for his shortstop eligibility.)
• Sorry, Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig. The Dodgers aren't playing you every day anymore, and it's no secret why. Come to think of it, Josh Reddick might be due for a similar downgrade if he doesn't get back to playing against most lefties. Hard to tell how much his back issues have impacted his playing time.
• Curtis Granderson and Melky Cabrera have crushed it lately, and I'm mostly convinced Randal Grichuk is legit. He has high BABIP for sure, but so many of his hits go for extra bases that I feel like he profiles as high-BABIP guy. If you told me I had to start them every week for the rest of the season, which is basically the threshold for a top-36 outfielder, I'd feel pretty good about my chances.
• And then comes the cliff-dive in the 40-45 range, which is where I put injured high-end types like Corey Dickerson, Matt Holliday, Denard Span, and Alex Gordon, not really knowing when they'll return.
If you're relying on any of these players ranked behind them, you're desperate enough to keep these injured outfielders stashed. Maybe Gerardo Parra, Adam Eaton or Aaron Hicks continue their hot hitting of late and emerge as something more, but their lack of home-run power keeps me skeptical.
Starting pitcher is a glorious mess, as usual ...
• This is where the aces and near-aces meet, that fine line between trustworthy and aggravating. Truth is the players on both sides of this line -- basically, the top 30 -- deserve to start every week in Fantasy, but if you have the chance to upgrade to those above it, you're less likely to have the rug pulled out from under you come playoff time.
• Look, it's the Ross brothers!
Depending how you familiar you are with Joe Ross' accomplishments, his ranking may strike you as too high or too low. I couldn't be any more in love with him right now, and if I could trust the Nationals to let him pile up innings down the stretch, I'd rank him as high as 32nd.
• Good luck guessing Jose Fernandez's value. If he comes back, he's an ace, but he may not come back at all. He kind of marks that line where I have my first thoughts about releasing a player in a shallower league.
• This is an aggravating list of names. For pitchers like Ervin Santana, Justin Verlander, Matt Shoemaker and the Brewers trio, my opinion seems to change with every start, which should tell you that while they all have their strengths, none is really on solid ground. In a perfect world, this would be the point in the pitcher rankings where your league's waiver wire begins so you could just react along with me, adding and dropping as the mood strikes you, but that's only true in shallower leagues. You'll want to use extreme caution when evaluating these names for rest-of-season purposes. The "safest" bets are probably Santana, Jimmy Nelson and Brett Anderson, but you're sacrificing some upside with them.
• Have you seen the way the Blue Jays have played lately? You don't think that impacts their closer?
Roberto Osuna's 2.09 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings would measure up to all but the best of the best in the role, but historically, the heavy-hitting Blue Jays haven't provided their closers with the most consistent save opportunities. Adding David Price to the top seems to have had a trickle-down effect on the rest of the pitching staff, though. Everyone is in a role more befitting of his abilities, and it's making for a balanced team -- the kind that can provide save opportunities. Osuna is now my bridge between the trustworthy and untrustworthy at the position.
• Speaking of untrustworthy, I never know what Joe Maddon is doing with his bullpen.
Hector Rondon is back to being the preferred option in the ninth and has the kind of numbers that should stick in the role, but at the first sign of trouble, I suspect Maddon will go back to Jason Motte or someone totally unprecedented like, well, we saw James Russell pitch the ninth Tuesday. That's Maddon's M.O. Otherwise, Rondon would belong up there with Osuna and Ken Giles.
• I get the feeling I'm still underestimating Brad Ziegler, not to mention the Diamondbacks as a whole. What can I say? I'm biased against closers who don't get strikeouts. Funky delivery or not, that 3.56 FIP spells trouble, right?
• Ah, yes. The Red Sox fill-ins are slotted behind the crummy SPARPs of the world, which tells you how little confidence I have in that situation. If Junichi Tazawa is able to hold off Jean Machi after Tuesday's speed bump, he's up in Shawn Tolleson/Francisco Rodriguez territory, but I don't know how short of a leash he has (not that Machi really deserves it more).