Tournament plays and cash lineup: 8/19

Would you rather have red-hot Corey Kluber or the consistency of Dallas Keuchel at home?

By Heath Cummings

Aug 19, 2015 at 9:54 am ET • 3 min read

Note: FanDuel is hosting a one-day Fantasy Baseball league tonight. It's $5 to enter and pays out $75,000 in cash prizes. First place wins $7,500. Sign up now!

Game theory is a very important part of DFS, but sometimes even if you nail the game theory you can still be wrong. Scott White brought this up when talking about Eugenio Suarez.

Scott faded Suarez on Tuesday because he thought Edinson Volquez was a better pitcher than the other starters facing cheap SS. Well, Volquez was pretty great and the Reds only scored one run. Of course that one run came on a Suarez home run into the left field corner that was caught in the first row.

On the flip side we all loved Aaron Hicks against CC Sabathia. The Twins hammered Sabathia as we expected, but Hicks was pretty awful. Is there anything to learn from these two anecdotes? Maybe nothing other than even with good game theory you can still fall victim to variance.

There hasn't been much variance to Dallas Keuchel ($10,900) this year at home, and that's one of the reasons he's my top cash game pitcher. Keuchel has made 13 starts in Houston. He's won 10 of them and given up two runs or less in 11. Keuchel even strikes out more than a batter per inning at home.

If you're rolling your eyes and talking about sample size, I'll assume you're not considering Corey Kluber ($12,000), who has been really good recently. Kluber has the highest K-potential and a FIP of 2.59, but his consistency this year has been non-existent.

I do like Kluber in tournaments as well as Jaime Garcia ($8,500) and Noah Syndergaard ($10,400). I would even consider Keyvius Sampson ($5,600) as a contrarian play with his offense's expected output.

Speaking of that output do you realize how bad Jeremy Guthrie has been this year? On the road he has a 7.66 ERA and has surrendered an OPS of 1.119 to lefties. Joey Votto ($4,100) is as close to a must play as you can get. Todd Frazier ($2,900) and Jay Bruce ($3,000) aren't far behind. I'd also consider the aforementioned Suarez if it wasn't for my other favorite offense.

The Blue Jays get Adam Morgan on Wednesday, and that is bad news for Adam Morgan. The Blue Jays are amazing against LHP with a wOBA of .356 and an .821 OPS. I can't pay up for Josh Donaldson ($5,500) when Frazier is so much cheaper, but Troy Tulowitzki ($4,000) will be in most of my lineups. I'll also try to work in Jose Bautista ($5,200) and Russell Martin ($2,700) where I can.

If you're looking for value plays, I think you have to start with Kolten Wong ($2,600) against Matt Cain. If Brandon Moss ($2,300) is in the lineup, I'd also consider him. Starling Marte ($3,000) may be a little more expensive than you think of for a bargain, but his .887 OPS vs. LHP should convince you otherwise.

Bargain Buy

Kolten Wong $2,600 vs. Matt Cain

BvP All Stars

Yoenis Cespedes .300/.385/.600 in 10 AB vs. Ubaldo Jimenez 1 HR

Matt Carpenter .700/.700/.700 in 10 AB vs. Matt Cain

Miguel Cabrera .560/.667/.840 in 26 AB vs. Jon Lester 1 HR

Victor Martinez .421/.476/.789 in 19 AB vs. Jon Lester 1 HR

Rajai Davis .318/.375/.591 in 44 AB vs. Jon Lester 1 HR

Ryan Zimmerman .313/.476/.688 in 16 AB vs. Jorge De La Rosa 1 HR

Ian Desmond .417/.500/.583 in 12 AB vs. Jorge De La Rosa

D.J. LeMahieu .333/.333/..583 in 12 AB vs. Stephen Strasburg 1 HR

Albert Pujols .368/.500/.895 in 19 AB vs. Jeff Samardzija 3 HR