Because a majority of industry rookie-only drafts happen in the month of May, we sometimes forget that a lot of rookie-only drafts don't happen until close to training camp. While you may question how many constitute "a lot", it's enough that a majority of this week's mailbag questions were about the rookie class or rookie draft pick value. And the great thing about mailbags is that they go wherever the questions lead them.
If you've already had your rookie draft, don't fear, most of these questions can be deciphered in a way that benefits anyone playing in a Dynasty league. After all, who isn't wondering about the value of guys like Ja'Marr Chase, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, and Courtland Sutton? But before we get to that, we need to talk about Saquon Barkley.
Time to buy Saquon Barkley?
Ekeler, CeeDee and 22’ 1st for Saquon Barkley and Booker— Big Cheese (@lemke911) June 3, 2021
With reports surfacing recently that Barkley would be eased back into things in 2021, I would anticipate there are a lot of people trying to buy low on the 24-year-old running back right now. And while I don't think he's risk-free (what running back is?) Barkley is younger than most of the proven elite running backs in the league, so I wholeheartedly endorse the idea. I'm just not sure this is it.
While Barkley is the most valuable asset in the deal, and my No. 2 overall in Dynasty leagues, Ekeler and Lamb have immense upside in their own right and are borderline No. 1s at their positions. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Ekeler is better than Barkley in 2021. The fact that you're throwing in a 2022 first-round pick makes this a clear no-go for me. This is not buying Barkley low, this is as if you were trading for him after his rookie year.
Hold Ekeler and Lamb.
Courtland Sutton's value in rookie picks
Dynasty 1 QB half ppr league. 1.08 or Courtland Sutton?— Tyler 🙅🏼♂️ (@TylerHouston33) June 3, 2021
This is a good time to revisit 2021 rookie pick value. In a league where you can only start one quarterback, I see a big drop off after pick six. A QB-needy team could be very happy with Trevor Lawrence at pick seven, and some people may want to fit Javonte Williams into that crew as well, but I'm doing everything I can to get into the top six which includes Chase, Harris, Kye Pitts, Travis Etienne, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. In two-QB leagues that tier grows to nine with the inclusion of Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance.
That cutoff is important in this case because I would strongly prefer 1.08 in a Superflex league to Sutton, but in a one-QB league it is a near push. The tiebreaker would be where my team was. On a contender, I'd prefer Sutton, but a rebuilding squad would probably be better off with the pick.
The problem with valuing Sutton is the uncertainty around his situation. he could possibly be the No. 1 receiver for Aaron Rodgers or the No. 2 receiver for Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater in 2021. The latter is more likely, at least in terms of quarterback play, and after 2021 he may not even be in Denver any longer. Sutton checks in as a high-upside No. 3 receiver in both redraft and Dynasty for me but the future is highly uncertain.
How to attack the top four in rookie-only drafts
Having a pair of picks in the top four in this year's draft is fantastic. My current top four are Chase, Harris, Etienne, and Pitts, but roster construction can definitely have an impact on who I'd take where. The math also changes a little bit when you have the first and fourth pick because you can try to guess what the second and third teams will do.
With your roster, running back looks like a much bigger strength than receiver, so it's pretty easy to take Chase No. 1 overall. Besides, there is no chance he's making it to No. 4, at least not in any one-QB draft I've done. I'm not sure Chase will be your best receiver in 2021, but he might be. And he's already ranked higher for me in Dynasty than D.J. Moore and Kenny Golladay.
It's pretty easy to take Etienne if he's there, but this gets more interest if Harris and Etienne are the next two picks. If that happens, I would be on the horn with the team with the sixth pick and see what they're willing to give up for Kyle Pitts. As I said above, there's a drop off after six, so I wouldn't move further back than that. If you can't get a deal done, I'm taking Pitts, even with Kittle on the roster. He may be a better flex than Smith and Waddle anyway.
Selling low on Josh Jacobs
12 team super flex. I am trading Jacobs and 1.9 for 1.2. What do you think?— Los (@RicanUFGator) June 3, 2021
This is how I know you guys don't read all of the mailbags. Because just last week I called Josh Jacobs one of my favorite buy-lows and now you're trying to deal him to move up seven spots in the rankings. Basically, you're giving up someone like Javonte Williams, Trevor Lawrence, or Terrace Marshall to upgrade Jacobs to Najee Harris. I'm just not sure there's going to be that much difference between the two in the next three years.
The Kenyan Drake acquisition has a lot of people concerned about Jacobs' future, but Jacobs has pretty much always shared, all the way back to college. He's also been a pretty reliable high-end No. 2 running back Fantasy while sharing. I see no problem with preferring Harris to Jacobs, I just wouldn't give up the ninth pick in the draft to make that "upgrade".
Should someone ever be offended by a trade offer and take a hardline stance of not responding or engaging?— FantasyConfuciusSays (@FFConfuciusSays) June 3, 2021
Offended? By a Fantasy Football trade offer? Absolutely not. Annoyed? Sure. And I can understand not engaging, especially if you have someone in your league who is constantly sending ridiculous trade offers. But I can't imagine being offended by it, it's just not that serious.
On the other hand, if you're tired of receiving that type of trade offer, I do have a suggestion; offer an equally bad offer. Some people simply want to negotiate. Show them how far apart you are by making any offer that is in your view the mirror image of the deal. Who knows, they may even respond with something in the middle.
Finally, stop wasting people's time with terrible offers.