Fantasy Football: Finding consensus (or not) between early-year ADP sources and our rankings

Where players fit now in Fantasy drafts with camps opening soon

We're at that point in the sports calendar where the days are slow. There's baseball, there's the WNBA, there are other sports we can watch, but it's not exactly the most thrilling time. This also happens to be when all of the NFL's coaches and players are on vacation as the start of training camp in late July marches forward. Soon, there will be non-stop football news and tons of much-needed Fantasy Football analysis to help you build a winning squad. 

But what about the months and months of news and analysis that's already taken place? It's the NFL's offseason (free agency and the draft) that helped shape how we view the 2023 season. Since January we've built and tweaked rankings and delivered an outlook on every player. 

Since training camps aren't here just yet, now's a perfect time to check our consensus rankings with the Average Draft Positions from two respected sites: FFCalculator.com and FantasyPros.com. FFCalculator.com's ADP is derived from their PPR mock drafts -- over 4,000 have taken place over the past week, according to their site. FantasyPros.com uses a consensus of two sources including Underdog Fantasy Best Ball ADP. 

The point of this is to see where our CBS analysis differs from the consensus, both in terms of being higher or lower on a player. And it's also worth checking out which players there's no consensus on. 

But there's more, and this is the point of the whole story: This list is probably an early look at the most volatile players we'll find in Fantasy ADP this year. Get to know them, and be ready to come to a decision on whether you'll want them on your Fantasy team or not. 

Take your time ... you have a few weeks. 

CBS ahead of consensus

Our consensus rank is pushed up by my rankings (Fields at 40th overall) and Jamey Eisenberg's rankings (38th overall). After running for over 1,000 yards last year and adding D.J. Moore to his stable this offseason, the optimism around Fields is easy to get. I checked him out during the team's three-day minicamp, and while an extensive report will be in front of your eyeballs soon, the general sense is that the Bears won't completely rein him in from running and he's going to throw a lot to Moore. These are good things. If his ADP is after 50th overall, there's an opportunity cost that smart Fantasy managers should flock to. 

The minicamp reports on Richardson weren't so kind -- he had inaccurate throws, even in drills without defenders, and he split first-team reps with Gardner Minshew. No one expected Richardson to suddenly become Drew Brees overnight, which is why his passing numbers figure to disappoint. But there's one thing this dude has been known to do, and that's run. His new head coach harnessed Jalen Hurts, another running quarterback, in 2022 and should build around Richardson similarly. That rushing profile keeps Richardson ranked the highest for me (80th overall). There's just too much upside and plenty of alternative quarterbacks you can draft late. 

Eisenberg, Heath Cummings and I all have Mattison as a top-40 pick (Cummings is highest at 35th overall). It's based on his opportunities and not as much on his talent. He's a strictly solid running back who has done a good job in spot starts over his career, usually against bad run defenses. He'll see competition at all levels now that he's the assumed lead back for the Vikings, but until further notice, he'll be used at the goal line and on passing downs. We like him as a No. 2 running back but we'd do backflips if we landed him around 60th overall. 

Cummings' ranking of Sanders at 30th overall drives our consensus number; Eisenberg and I have him at 46th overall, which is closer to FFCalculator's ADP. I believe Cummings loves Sanders' chances of being a bell cow back for the Panthers, something that I'm not sure is a certainty. And while Sanders did score 11 touchdowns in 2022, he did it with a top-12 rushing offense and only averaged 12.7 PPR points per game. Cummings is also banking on rookie QB Bryce Young continuing to lean on his running backs in the passing game, something that was a sometimes-staple in Frank Reich's offenses in Indianapolis. I would personally take a more cautious approach with Sanders, but he's still expected to be nabbed as a No. 2 Fantasy running back. 

I suppose we're believing the hype driven up by offseason headlines around White. Bucs GM Jason Licht proclaimed him a "stud" and the coaching staff seems to believe White can evolve into a quality three-down player. As a rookie, White proved he could play on all three downs (50 receptions!) but averaged a poor 3.7 yards per rush. A change in offensive scheme seems to suit White just fine, and his competition for playing time is limited to Chase Edmonds, Ke'Shawn Vaughn and undrafted rookie running back Sean Tucker. You don't see many running backs with this kind of profile sitting in Round 5, which is when we would take him, so if you see him in Round 6 or later like the ADP suggests, you should have a bargain. 

You'll find Perine's new running mate in Denver, Javonte Williams, on a different list later on. Our collective love for Perine (led by Cummings' rank at 75th overall) stems from new Broncos coach Sean Payton choosing him as a fit for his offense in free agency. Perine is not bad as a pass catcher (a career-high 38 receptions last year), and running backs have averaged an unreal 31.1% of receptions per year under Payton's tutelage including three seasons over 35%. You may find our consensus on Perine will fade if Williams participates in some of training camp (his recovery from major knee surgery hasn't been a breeze). That also means that the longer Williams is out, the higher the chances Perine begins the season as a high-end No. 2 rusher. 

Herbert's value is all over the map. I'm the high guy on him at CBS (75th overall) followed by Eisenberg (81st overall) and then Cummings (121st), who is closer to FantasyPros. FFCalculator doesn't even have an ADP on Herbert! I believe Herbert will absolutely have weekly competition for playing time, but I also believe he's the Bears' most elusive running back. Heck, he was among the NFL's most elusive running backs last season (top-10 in explosive run rate and avoided tackle rate; tied for 12th with Josh Jacobs in PFF's elusive rating metric). I think he has 1,000-total-yard potential, which makes for a qualified No. 2 option. It's stealing if you find Herbert after 90th overall, much less after 120th overall. 

There's no consensus on Dotson at CBS -- Cummings ranked him 51st overall, Eisenberg 67th overall and I have him 78th overall. Certainly it's my colleagues' rankings of Dotson that put us ahead of the other ADPs. I love his talent for sure, but 32% of his PPR points last year came from his seven touchdowns, all of which were thrown by guys who are no longer on the Commanders. Dotson also had one game over 100 yards, the rest under 80 yards including seven outings with under 45 yards. Could he take a second-year leap with a new play caller and with new quarterbacks? Absolutely! I just don't want to bet on it in Round 6. 

File Doubs under the same banner as Dotson -- no consensus among the three sites and no consensus among CBS analysts. Cummings ranked him at 82nd overall, Eisenberg at 104th, I have him at 120th. The minicamp reports would seem to favor Doubs, who appears to be the Packers receiver most in-sync with Jordan Love. His path to Fantasy goodness would involve him reaping a slew of short-area throws from Love, something managers might not be comfortable with considering his 10.6% drop rate as a rookie (eighth-highest in the NFL). Preseason reports will go a long way in determining his ADP. 

Our crew has Okonkwo as a late Round 9/early Round 10 pick while the rest of the world would look at him closer to Round 12 or later. I'm the high guy on Okonkwo -- even with the Titans priding themselves on being a run-first team, there's a pathway for the second-year tight end to finish second on the Titans in targets. He averaged 10.0 PPR points per game in his final six and has some otherworldly advanced metrics on his side. He's the kind of tight end I love to draft if I whiff on one of the top-tier options through the first eight-plus rounds. 

I'm the one bringing Dulcich's consensus ranking up -- I like him at 113th overall as a Round 10 pick; my buddies are much closer to Fantasy Pros' ADP. While he doesn't quite have the profile of finishing first or second on the Broncos in targets, he does have a solid athletic profile and could be schemed up in Sean Payton's offense as a mismatch piece like Jimmy Graham once was. One of my philosophies is to reach for a potential TE starter over a bench WR with minimal upside -- I can always find those other WRs later. Hence my high ranking, which may not seem as high if he draws attention this preseason.

CBS behind consensus

Leave it to me to be the most bearish on Prescott, placing him at 124th in my rankings. He genuinely doesn't deserve it -- Prescott averaged 23.9 points per game from Week 8 on (soon after his return from injury) and delivered 24.0 points per game in 2021. Mike McCarthy's comments about slowing the offense down spooked me -- it makes sense for the Cowboys to rest up their defense by playing offense at a slower pace, but that will cost Prescott opportunities to throw and run. I'll admit there's room for my opinion to change, but not to the point where I have him ranked where he's going in FFCalculator drafts.

Eisenberg (47th overall) and Cummings (56th overall) seem to have Hall ranked as if he's not going to be ready for the start of the season. At 23rd overall, I have him ranked as if he'll be at training camp, much less ready for Week 1. No doubt, this ranking is basically meaningless right now as we will all adjust expectations based on his recovery. But know this: It is rare for a running back to tear his ACL one year and then come back playing great the next. Adrian Peterson did it, but no one else really has for a full season. That said, if Hall is even 80% of what we saw from him as a rookie, taking him before 30th overall won't feel bad. 

No consensus on Walker from these three sources, and no consensus on Walker from the CBS pundits (I have him at 45th, Eisenberg has him at 53rd, Cummings has him at 88th). Clearly, opinions on Walker will be all over the map. My take on him is that there's zero shot at him being a three-down workhorse but he should still lead the Seahawks in carries and rushing touchdowns. That's enough for me to target him with a top-50 pick as a No. 2 option, but not as a top-30 choice. That seems too risky.

There's pretty good consensus from us at CBS on Metcalf -- he's ranked anywhere from 46th to 55th, which is well below the other two sources. We're talking about a receiver who hasn't averaged over 14 PPR points in two straight seasons, who gets plenty of targets and still struggles to get prime yardage, who makes his game on touchdowns but only scored six last year (with a breakout quarterback) and who will now share the field with a rookie first-rounder in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That's a lot of negatives, which is why I'm very comfortable with our consensus ranking. 

We collectively view Samuel as a late Round 4/early Round 5 pick. That's because we've seen what he looks like in an offense with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Brock Purdy -- 13.8 PPR points per game including the postseason. That's not bad, but it's nowhere near his gallant 2021 when he averaged a ridiculous 20.4. He's not Round 3 material if his expectation is to fall below 15 PPR points per game, which he's done all but once in his career. 

The highest you'll find any of our crew on Evans is 68th overall (that would be me). Cummings has him at 92nd overall, a clear designation that he does not want to draft him. The other two sources are more optimistic on Evans continuing his 1,000-yard streak and being a target hog for the Bucs. Don't bank on it -- Tampa Bay's offense is changing without Tom Brady under center and the downfield passing that Evans has usually thrived on figures to be much worse in 2023. 

Cummings drags down our consensus ranking -- he has Pittman at 103rd overall -- but none of us quite rank him where FFC has him. I have a legit fear that Anthony Richardson's arrival will shrink his target volume and efficiency. Pittman was already a disappointing touchdown producer, mainly because he's had eight targets when the Colts were inside the 5 over 46 career games (two touchdowns). Taylor snapping up touches in short range will happen, and Richardson's penchant for rushing scores will also hurt Pittman's touchdown upside. Richardson's accuracy has already been an issue in minicamp after it was a big issue at Florida. Maybe Cummings is on the right track. 

There's no consensus on Williams among the three sources nor among us at CBS. I'm way out on Williams (87th overall) while Eisenberg (76th overall) and Cummings (64th overall) still feel like he has something good to contribute. Since Week 6 of 2021 (after his amazing start to the season), Williams has averaged 12.8 PPR points per game. The Chargers added rookie Quentin Johnston to their receiving corps without taking anyone away. It's hard to see Williams making the jump to elite-level talent, but the ADP sources suggest the public is still very much into him. 

Everyone in our crew has Cooks ranked 84th or later, including me as the low man at 99th overall. He's unlikely to overtake CeeDee Lamb as the Cowboys' top target, which means he'll have to post good numbers on a diet of five or six targets per game in an offense that admittedly wants to slow down its pace. The 29-year-old Cooks has averaged less than 14 PPR points per game for two straight seasons, including a nauseating 11.2 in 2022 with Houston. 

The recent news that the Broncos want Sutton to focus on running routes like Michael Thomas suggests he'll have a significant role in the Denver offense this year. That's a good thing, but we're skeptical it will mean production like Thomas as we all have Sutton ranked 112th or later. ADP sources seem to reflect Sutton as a favorite of the public still. Sutton last averaged more than 11 PPR points per game in 2019, though injuries played a major role in his downfall. 

There's consensus among the CBS analysts as Kittle is ranked between 74th and 79th for all of us. We know he was a touchdown magnet for Purdy last year, but many of them came without the 49ers playing at full strength. In his five games with Purdy, Samuel and Aiyuk all on the field, Kittle averaged 4.2 targets and 10.0 PPR points per game with two outings of 12-plus PPR points. Look, 10 PPR points from a tight end certainly isn't bad -- but it's not worth taking in or near Round 5. 

Other players CBS is lower on than consensus: Jared Goff, Damien Harris, Allen Lazard, Tyler Boyd

No consensus

Etienne survived a workhorse role last year but came away with 13.4 PPR points per game from Week 5 on. The Jaguars' offseason moves suggest he'll still be Jacksonville's main guy, but he'll have more help, including at the goal line. I think managers who are hoping for Etienne to expand his role in the passing game will take him in early Round 3, which is a spot we're collectively a little too nervous to go with him. 

This is wacky -- at least 15 spots separate each of the three sources for this study. All of CBS' analysts have Williams in the 60s overall (Eisenberg is lowest at 69th), suggesting that he'll be useful assuming he comes back from major knee surgery in good shape. I am not underestimating the impact Perine will have on Williams -- he should almost be used exclusively on passing downs, taking away a major area of production from Williams ... and he might even do more to hurt Williams' numbers. Be careful drafting him. 

Will Montgomery sufficiently replace Jamaal Williams' touchdown totals and pick up chunks of yards along the way, or will he be an inefficient runner with lacking speed like he was in Chi-town? There's no consensus among the three sources and only two of CBS' analysts rank him past Round 4. If the Lions' headlines this preseason don't suggest any differences in Montgomery's game, his ADP figures to wildly flail from league to league. 

Our crew ranks Dillon in between FFCalculator and Fantasy Pros' ADP projections. It probably means he'll end up being a Round 7 pick as a modest weekly contributor and a high-end lottery ticket (his value would surge if Aaron Jones were to miss time). Plan on jumping all over Dillon if you find him in Round 8 or later. 

We recently had a conversation about Olave as a dark-horse candidate to be the No. 1 overall receiver in Fantasy scoring this year. If he earns a target share higher than expected from Derek Carr (who has leaned quite heavily on one specific target for many of his seasons), he could outperform any expectation. Aggressive drafters will consider Olave close to where his ADP is on Fantasy Pros; skeptics who don't think Carr can throw well anymore won't draft him unless he's where he's at in FFCalculator's ADP.

I suppose we like Moore's game and his chances to be a better contributor than he's been -- especially one of us who has been outspoken about Moore and currently has him 36th overall. The other ADP sources are saying the public has had enough of Moore's hype and won't take him until at least late Round 4. We get it, that's understandable. After all, Moore has never finished as a top-12 receiver on a per-game basis and has been outside of the top 24 in each of the past three years. 

Wow. Each source is THIRTY-PLUS picks apart on the Seahawks rookie receiver. Our CBS ranking reflects a similar difference of opinion -- Cummings is taking JSN at 85th overall, Eisenberg at 94th overall and I'm the low guy at 121st overall. Is he an NFL-ready slot receiver? No doubt. But is he also sharing targets with Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? Yup. And isn't the Seattle offense one that likes to run the ball more than your typical NFL offense? Yes, but it wasn't quite that way last year. A full unleashing of Geno Smith could help all three Seattle receivers be productive for Fantasy, but that's really hard to buy into, especially for the rookie's Fantasy potential. 

Other players there's no consensus on: Zach Charbonnet, Quentin Johnston, Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth